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BRAZIL › SERIE B
19.10.2026 22:30
Estádio da Serrinha
Referee: Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz

Goias vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.7%
1.74 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.00 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.11 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Goias Win 70.7%
Draw 6.5%
Nautico Recife Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Goias1.13
Nautico Recife1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Goias Goias
WWDLW
34 GF / 40 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
39 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
13
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
13
3.85
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Goias Goias 33 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 33 matches
Goias Statistic Nautico Recife
14 Wins 11
6 Draws 9
13 Losses 13
34 Goals For 39
40 Goals Against 42
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
13 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 22
12 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 12
3.85 Shots On Goal 4.42
12.21 Total Shots 15.7
4.39 Corners 5.94
51.8% Ball Possession 57.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Nautico Recife arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Goias expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nautico Recife.

Goias Analysis

Goias sit 9 with 48 points after 33 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, while the 34:40 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kadu (6 goals), Anselmo Ramon (5 goals), Jean Carlos Alves Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Esli García (3 assists), Cadu (2 assists), Lucas Lima (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 13 with 42 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats with a 39:42 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vinícius (7 goals), Jean Carlos (3 goals), Júnior Todinho (3 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (3 assists), Jean Carlos (3 assists), Yuri (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Goias won 6 times, Nautico Recife won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:10 from Goias's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Goias 4-1-4-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Goias wins 6, draws 0, Nautico Recife wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
3 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9
Goias Home
33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 34 13 9 12 44:46 -2 48
L L L L D
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
14 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
15 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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