FRANCE LIGUE 3
26.09.2026 18:45
Stade Pele

Gobelins vs Bastia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gobelins Win 35%
Draw 15%
Bastia Win 49.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gobelins1.48
Bastia1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gobelins Gobelins
WWDLW
15 GF / 15 GA
Bastia Bastia
WLDWL
10 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
6
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gobelins Gobelins 11 matches
Bastia Bastia 9 matches
Gobelins Statistic Bastia
4 Wins 3
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
15 Goals For 10
15 Goals Against 15
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bastia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Bastia having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gobelins Analysis

So far, Gobelins have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 8 points from 6 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 4:6 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bastia Analysis

So far, Bastia have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 10 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 13:2 11 17
W W D W W
2 7 4 3 0 10:6 4 15
W D D W D
3 7 3 3 1 9:6 3 12
W W D D W
4 7 3 3 1 13:11 2 12
D L D D W
5 7 4 0 3 12:7 5 12
L W W L W
6 7 3 2 2 8:2 6 11
W D W W L
7 7 2 5 0 8:3 5 11
D D W W D
8 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
D W L L W
9 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:9 -3 10
D W L W L
11 7 2 3 2 5:7 -2 9
D L D D W
12 7 2 3 2 6:8 -2 9
D W D W L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
D W W L L
14 7 2 1 4 6:10 -4 7
L L D L W
15 7 1 2 4 7:12 -5 5
L L D D L
16 7 1 1 5 3:8 -5 4
L L D W L
17 7 1 1 5 4:12 -8 4
D L L L L
18 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation