FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: J. Kontinen
Gnistan
Match Timeline
VPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
A. Akinyemi
Gnistan
36'
L. Smyth · Assist: J. Muzinga
VPS
🔄
46'
Marcelo Costa ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
57'
D. Perez ↔ S. Ylatupa
Gnistan
🔄
65'
V. Ronnberg ↔ M. Niemi
VPS
🔄
65'
J. Muzinga ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
🔄
69'
A. Akinyemi ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🔄
69'
O. Hannula ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
76'
S. Lindholm ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🟨
81'
S. Ylatupa
Gnistan
🔄
84'
R. Eremenko ↔ S. Eremenko
Gnistan
🟨
85'
P. Lima
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 59%
Draw 9.6%
VPS Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.14
VPS1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
23 GF / 26 GA
VPS VPS
WLDWL
20 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
6
4.17
Shots on Goal
1.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 18 matches
VPS VPS 16 matches
Gnistan Statistic VPS
6 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 4
23 Goals For 20
26 Goals Against 15
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 5
4.17 Shots On Goal 1.67
11.42 Total Shots 3.67
3.58 Corners 1.83
44.7% Ball Possession 22.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 3-4-3 and VPS in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors VPS. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Gnistan come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 17 points after 11 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a 17:15 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (5 goals), Joakim Latonen (3 goals), A. Obileye (2 goals), with creative support from Joakim Latonen (3 assists), Roman Eremenko (3 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

VPS Analysis

From their first 11 matches, VPS have collected 17 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 11:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luka Smyth (7 goals), S. Lindholm (3 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (2 assists), Vilmer Ronnberg (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 4 times, VPS won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Gnistan's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-3 / VPS 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 4, draws 4, VPS wins 5
Stats
Gnistan Gnistan
VPS VPS
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 3
1 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 2
2 Blocked Shots 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gnistan
Formation
VPS
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
E. Arko-Mensah
E. Arko-Mensah
R. Eremenko
R. Eremenko
A. Jouhi
A. Jouhi
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
D. Perez
D. Perez
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
V. Ronnberg
V. Ronnberg
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Haukioja
M. Haukioja
Y. Daoussi
Y. Daoussi
L. Mane
L. Mane
P. Lima
P. Lima
J. Turfkruier
J. Turfkruier
S. Lindholm
S. Lindholm
J. Muzinga
🎯
J. Muzinga
L. Smyth
L. Smyth
Gnistan 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
27
O. Hannula
↓ 69'
24
R. Gnanou
67
A. Obileye
4
Marcelo Costa
↓ 46'
12
E. Arko-Mensah
26
R. Eremenko
↓ 84'
31
A. Jouhi
15
G. Europaeus
11
D. Perez
↓ 57'
17
A. Akinyemi
⚽ 20' ↓ 69'
Substitutes
22
Ramilson
40
J. Ojala
↑ 46'
7
A. Atarah
↑ 69'
14
S. Eremenko
↑ 84'
23
S. Ylatupa
↑ 57' 🟨 81'
10
J. Latonen
↑ 69'
19
V. Hanninen
2
B. Dahlstrom
20
M. H. Bjurstrom
VPS 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
5
V. Ronnberg
↓ 65'
6
E. Okereke
19
M. Haukioja
24
Y. Daoussi
2
L. Mane
8
P. Lima
🟨 85'
7
J. Turfkruier
14
S. Lindholm
↓ 76'
11
J. Muzinga
🎯 36' ↓ 65'
15
L. Smyth
⚽ 36'
Substitutes
1
A. Piispa
23
M. Niemi
↑ 65'
26
R. Forsbacka
33
A. Kuek
34
A. Raisanen
↑ 65'
13
O. Ogunniyi
↑ 76'
35
O. Keturi
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H: Gnistan vs VPS
27.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
09.05.26
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
15.08.25
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
0
0
D
18.06.25
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
0
D
23.10.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
1
W
04.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
3
0
W
20.04.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
2
L
16.10.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
4
L
18.07.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
2
0
W
12.05.21
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
2
0
L
25.10.20
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
5
W
30.08.20
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
2
L
15.03.19
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
3
L
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
27.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
15.08.25
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
3
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
4
L
18.07.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
2
0
W
30.08.20
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
2
L
15.03.19
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
3
L
Last matches: VPS
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
H2H away: VPS
27.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
15.08.25
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
0
0
D
04.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
3
0
L
16.10.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
4
W
18.07.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
2
0
L
30.08.20
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
2
W
15.03.19
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
3
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3
VPS Away
15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)