FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: M. Roth
Gnistan
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
S. Ylatupa
Gnistan
🔄
26'
S. Ngulube ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
R. Eremenko ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
46'
V. Widlund ↔ J. Svedberg
Mariehamn
51'
A. Akinyemi · Assist: J. Latonen
Gnistan
53'
A. Stroud · Assist: A. Larsson
Mariehamn
🔄
65'
A. Larsson ↔ W. Nunez
Mariehamn
🔄
71'
S. Ylatupa ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
71'
A. Akinyemi
Gnistan
🔄
77'
G. Europaeus ↔ S. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
77'
A. Akinyemi ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
79'
W. Nunez · Assist: J. Svedberg
Mariehamn
🔄
80'
O. Hannula ↔ J. Selenge
Gnistan
🔄
81'
A. Stroud ↔ L. Andersson
Mariehamn
🔄
81'
J. Heyden ↔ A. Bergvik
Mariehamn
🟨
90+1'
Tuomas Koivisto
Mariehamn
90'
D. Perez
Gnistan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 88%
Draw 5.6%
Mariehamn Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.5
Mariehamn0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
24 GF / 28 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
11 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.61
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
9
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
8
3.86
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 20 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 18 matches
Gnistan Statistic Mariehamn
6 Wins 1
5 Draws 6
9 Losses 11
24 Goals For 11
28 Goals Against 35
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.61
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
9 BTTS Yes 8
16 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 0
6 Failed To Score 10
3.86 Shots On Goal 1.5
11.21 Total Shots 3.93
3.43 Corners 2.07
44.4% Ball Possession 26%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Gnistan's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gnistan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 19 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Mariehamn in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan are currently 6 in the standings with 19 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:17 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Akinyemi (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 4 points from 13 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 6:25, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 7 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:19 from Gnistan's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-1-2 / Mariehamn 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 7, draws 4, Mariehamn wins 3

Lineups

Gnistan
Formation
Mariehamn
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
A. Jouhi
A. Jouhi
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
E. Arko-Mensah
E. Arko-Mensah
S. Ylatupa
S. Ylatupa
A. Akinyemi
⚽ 2
A. Akinyemi
R. Eremenko
R. Eremenko
M. Riikonen
M. Riikonen
T. Koivisto
T. Koivisto
Y. Amankwah
Y. Amankwah
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
J. Heyden
J. Heyden
A. Stroud
A. Stroud
E. Patut
E. Patut
V. Widlund
V. Widlund
J. Nissinen
J. Nissinen
A. Larsson
🎯
A. Larsson
Gnistan 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
G
24
R. Gnanou
D
67
A. Obileye
D
4
Marcelo Costa
D
27
O. Hannula
↓ 80'
M
31
A. Jouhi
M
15
G. Europaeus
↓ 77'
M
12
E. Arko-Mensah
D
23
S. Ylatupa
⚽ 6' ↓ 71'
M
17
A. Akinyemi
⚽ 51' ⚽ 71' ↓ 77'
F
26
R. Eremenko
↓ 46'
M
Substitutes
13
O. Lyberopoulos
G
40
J. Ojala
D
7
A. Atarah
↑ 71'
M
14
S. Eremenko
↑ 77'
M
11
D. Perez
⚽ 90' ↑ 77'
F
10
J. Latonen
🎯 51' ↑ 46'
F
2
B. Dahlstrom
D
50
J. Selenge
↑ 80'
M
Mariehamn 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
32
M. Riikonen
G
5
T. Koivisto
🟨 90+1'
D
38
Y. Amankwah
D
2
N. Nurmi
D
31
S. Ngulube
↓ 26'
D
8
J. Heyden
↓ 81'
M
18
A. Stroud
⚽ 53' ↓ 81'
M
20
E. Patut
M
23
V. Widlund
↓ 46'
D
28
J. Nissinen
D
7
A. Larsson
🎯 53' ↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
1
K. Lund
G
11
J. Svedberg
🎯 79' ↑ 46'
M
64
M. Hyvonen
M
43
L. Andersson
↑ 81'
F
16
A. Huttunen
M
3
A. Soiniemi
↑ 26'
D
9
W. Nunez
⚽ 79' ↑ 65'
F
14
A. Bergvik
↑ 81'
M
Last matches: Gnistan
07.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
2
2
D
01.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
26.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H: Gnistan vs Mariehamn
11.07.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
13.06.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
W
30.01.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
2
D
09.08.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
5
W
03.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
0
W
08.02.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
0
W
15.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
W
21.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
W
26.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
0
D
29.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Gnistan
3
0
L
25.10.23
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
0
0
D
13.03.20
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
3
L
25.04.12
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
1
4
L
Last matches: Gnistan
01.08.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
11.07.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
30.01.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
2
D
03.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
0
W
08.02.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
0
W
15.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
W
21.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
0
0
D
13.03.20
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
3
L
25.04.12
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
1
4
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
11.07.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
L
30.01.26
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
2
D
03.05.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
0
L
08.02.25
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
0
L
15.09.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
L
21.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
1
L
25.10.23
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
0
0
D
13.03.20
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
2
3
W
25.04.12
H2H
Gnistan
Mariehamn
1
4
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 6 1 33:16 17 39
W W W W W
2 18 9 7 2 25:14 11 34
W L D W D
3 19 8 6 5 27:18 9 30
W L L L W
4 18 9 3 6 22:21 1 30
W D L L D
5 19 8 5 6 29:24 5 29
D L W W W
6 18 8 4 6 28:23 5 28
L W W L L
7 18 7 4 7 22:16 6 25
W L W W W
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
W L L W L
9 18 6 4 8 29:31 -2 22
L W W L D
10 19 4 6 9 24:29 -5 18
D W L L L
11 19 3 6 10 18:38 -20 15
L L W D W
12 18 0 5 13 9:39 -30 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)