Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
54.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Gnistan
Mariehamn
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Gnistan
20 matches
Mariehamn
18 matches
| Gnistan | Statistic | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 1 |
| 5 | Draws | 6 |
| 9 | Losses | 11 |
| 24 | Goals For | 11 |
| 28 | Goals Against | 35 |
| 1.2 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.61 |
| 1.4 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.94 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 16 | Over 1.5 | 15 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 0 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 3.86 | Shots On Goal | 1.5 |
| 11.21 | Total Shots | 3.93 |
| 3.43 | Corners | 2.07 |
| 44.4% | Ball Possession | 26% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Gnistan's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Gnistan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 19 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Mariehamn in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control.
Gnistan are currently 6 in the standings with 19 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:17 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Akinyemi (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
With 4 points from 13 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 6:25, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 7 times, Mariehamn won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:19 from Gnistan's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.
Lineups
Gnistan
SJK
Gnistan
KuPS
Gnistan
Inter Turku
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Gnistan
Lahti
Gnistan
VPS
Gnistan
FF Jaro
Gnistan
Lahti
Gnistan
Mariehamn
Gnistan
SJK
Gnistan
Ilves
Gnistan
FF Jaro
Gnistan
VPS
Gnistan
Inter Turku
Gnistan
Turku PS
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
KuPS
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Gnistan
Kooteepee
Gnistan
PK-35
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Gnistan
KuPS
Gnistan
VPS
Gnistan
Lahti
Gnistan
SJK
Gnistan
FF Jaro
Gnistan
Inter Turku
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Gnistan
PK-35
Gnistan
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 33:16 | 17 | 39 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:14 | 11 | 34 |
W
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:18 | 9 | 30 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 22:21 | 1 | 30 |
W
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 5 |
Gnistan
Home
|
19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 29:24 | 5 | 29 |
D
L
W
W
W
|
| 6 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28:23 | 5 | 28 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 7 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22:16 | 6 | 25 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23:20 | 3 | 25 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29:31 | -2 | 22 |
L
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 24:29 | -5 | 18 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18:38 | -20 | 15 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Away
|
18 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 9:39 | -30 | 5 |
L
D
L
L
L
|