FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: A. Munukka
Gnistan
Match Timeline
Lahti
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
Lahti
🔄
34'
Y. Cassubie ↔ A. Kabashi
Lahti
🔄
46'
S. Ylatupa ↔ E. Arko-Mensah
Gnistan
🔄
46'
N. Gianini Dantas ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
51'
A. Obileye
Gnistan
🔄
55'
A. Obileye ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
60'
A. Lindholm ↔ Neemias
Lahti
🟨
64'
Amir Belabid
Lahti
🔄
64'
J. Latonen ↔ A. Jouhi
Gnistan
🔄
68'
E. Andersson ↔ O. Koskinen
Lahti
🔄
68'
A. Belabid ↔ J. Ojanen
Lahti
🟨
79'
Marcelo Costa
Gnistan
🔄
79'
R. Eremenko ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🔄
79'
A. Akinyemi ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🟨
82'
Tòfol Montiel
Lahti
🟨
84'
Edmund Arko-Mensah
Gnistan
🟨
90+1'
Adam Jouhi
Gnistan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.9%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 61.9%
Draw 13.5%
Lahti Win 24.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.3
Lahti1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
21 GF / 25 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
21 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
7
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
7
4.2
Shots on Goal
2.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 16 matches
Lahti Lahti 14 matches
Gnistan Statistic Lahti
5 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
8 Losses 5
21 Goals For 21
25 Goals Against 18
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
7 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 2
4.2 Shots On Goal 2.1
10.7 Total Shots 6.5
3.5 Corners 3
43.5% Ball Possession 33%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Lahti's more proactive style and Gnistan's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lahti.

Gnistan Analysis

So far, Gnistan have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 11 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (5 goals), Joakim Latonen (2 goals), A. Obileye (1 goals), with creative support from Joakim Latonen (2 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (2 assists), Roman Eremenko (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 11 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on A. Belabid (2 goals), M. Sarr (2 goals), Martim Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (2 assists), R. Sans (2 assists), A. Belabid (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 2 times, Lahti won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Gnistan's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 5-3-2 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 2, draws 5, Lahti wins 4
Stats
Gnistan Gnistan
Lahti Lahti
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 6
17 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 5
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Goal 5
12 Shots off Goal 11
3 Blocked Shots 4
14 Shots insidebox 13
5 Shots outsidebox 7
5 Goalkeeper Saves 3
345 Total passes 507
251 Passes accurate 418
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gnistan
Formation
Lahti
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
S. Ylatupa
S. Ylatupa
S. Eremenko
S. Eremenko
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
R. Eremenko
R. Eremenko
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
J. Latonen
J. Latonen
O. Maukonen
O. Maukonen
N. Gianini Dantas
N. Gianini Dantas
J. Muller
J. Muller
R. Sans
R. Sans
C. Montiel
C. Montiel
E. Andersson
E. Andersson
Y. Cassubie
Y. Cassubie
D. Heikkinen
D. Heikkinen
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
A. Lindholm
A. Lindholm
A. Belabid
A. Belabid
Gnistan 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
G
24
R. Gnanou
D
67
A. Obileye
⚽ 51' ↓ 55'
D
4
Marcelo Costa
🟨 79'
F
23
S. Ylatupa
↓ 46'
F
14
S. Eremenko
M
15
G. Europaeus
M
27
O. Hannula
M
26
R. Eremenko
↓ 79'
M
17
A. Akinyemi
↓ 79'
F
10
J. Latonen
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
22
Ramilson
G
40
J. Ojala
↑ 55'
D
12
E. Arko-Mensah
↑ 46' 🟨 84'
D
7
A. Atarah
↑ 79'
M
11
D. Perez
↑ 79'
F
19
V. Hanninen
M
2
B. Dahlstrom
D
20
M. H. Bjurstrom
D
31
A. Jouhi
↑ 64' 🟨 90+1'
M
Lahti 3-4-3
Starting XI
31
O. Maukonen
G
5
N. Gianini Dantas
↓ 46' 🟨 2'
D
4
J. Muller
D
3
R. Sans
D
8
C. Montiel
🟨 82'
M
14
E. Andersson
↓ 68'
M
18
Y. Cassubie
↓ 34'
M
7
D. Heikkinen
M
77
M. Sarr
F
9
A. Lindholm
↓ 60'
F
17
A. Belabid
↓ 68' 🟨 64'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Hakala
G
2
J. Lehtonen
D
21
M. Vainionpaa
D
10
O. Koskinen
↑ 68'
M
20
J. Ojanen
↑ 68'
M
28
A. Kabashi
↑ 34'
M
6
V. Vehkonen
↑ 46'
D
19
Neemias
↑ 60'
F
25
T. Inkinen
D
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
Last matches: Lahti
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H: Gnistan vs Lahti
04.07.26
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
L
17.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
22.02.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
2
D
19.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
02.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
2
2
D
17.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
2
L
04.03.22
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
L
24.04.21
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
L
13.06.20
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
17.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
22.02.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
2
D
02.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
1
W
17.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
2
L
Last matches: Lahti
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H away: Lahti
17.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
L
22.02.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
2
D
02.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
1
L
17.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8
Lahti Away
15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)