FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Markku.fi Areena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 43.9%
Draw 9.9%
KuPS Win 46.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.2
KuPS1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
32 GF / 31 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
39 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
9
3.38
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 23 matches
KuPS KuPS 24 matches
Gnistan Statistic KuPS
9 Wins 13
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 4
32 Goals For 39
31 Goals Against 22
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
11 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 5
3.38 Shots On Goal 2.67
9.81 Total Shots 6.5
3 Corners 2.56
38.9% Ball Possession 26.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. KuPS look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 3-4-3 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan are currently 6 in the standings with 25 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 25:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Akinyemi (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 33 points from 16 games, KuPS bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 29:15, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 goals), with creative support from C. Antwi (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 0 times, KuPS won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:22 from Gnistan's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.38 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-3 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 0, draws 2, KuPS wins 6
Last matches: Gnistan
26.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
Last matches: KuPS
28.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
2
L
25.07.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
21.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
2
0
W
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
H2H: Gnistan vs KuPS
11.04.26
H2H
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
L
30.10.25
H2H
KuPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
4
L
01.07.25
H2H
KuPS
Gnistan
6
2
L
27.04.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
1
2
L
07.07.24
H2H
KuPS
Gnistan
3
1
L
19.05.24
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
0
D
20.03.21
H2H
KuPS
Gnistan
5
0
L
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
27.09.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
4
L
27.04.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
1
2
L
19.05.24
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
0
D
Last matches: KuPS
21.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
2
0
W
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
23.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Breidablik
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
4
L
06.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
0
3
L
15.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
0
0
D
H2H away: KuPS
27.09.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
4
W
27.04.25
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
1
2
W
19.05.24
H2H
Gnistan
KuPS
0
0
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Away
17 10 6 1 32:16 16 36
W W W W W
2 17 8 7 2 24:14 10 31
L D W D D
3 17 8 4 5 28:20 8 28
W W L L W
4 17 8 4 5 27:21 6 28
W W W L D
5 17 7 6 4 24:16 8 27
L L W W D
6 17 8 3 6 21:21 0 27
D L L D L
7 17 6 4 7 20:16 4 22
L W W W D
8 17 6 4 7 20:20 0 22
L L W L W
9 17 6 4 7 29:30 -1 22
W W L D L
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 17 0 5 12 9:36 -27 5
D L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)