FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Markku.fi Areena
Referee: M. Al-Emara
Gnistan
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
37'
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi
Gnistan
44'
T. Pukki · Assist: L. Lingman
HJK Helsinki
🟨
48'
Gabriel Europaeus
Gnistan
52'
T. Pukki · Assist: D. Ezeh
HJK Helsinki
🔄
59'
A. Akinyemi ↔ O. Hannula
Gnistan
🔄
59'
M. H. Bjurstrom ↔ S. Ylatupa
Gnistan
🔄
59'
S. Eremenko ↔ A. Jouhi
Gnistan
🔄
61'
A. Cicale ↔ T. Mero
HJK Helsinki
🔄
61'
T. Pukki ↔ M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
72'
M. Kirilov ↔ J. Kallinen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
73'
Otto Hannula
Gnistan
🔄
75'
D. Perez ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
79'
M. Bogicevic · Assist: P. Mentu
HJK Helsinki
🔄
83'
M. Ylitolva ↔ K. Simojoki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
83'
D. Ezeh ↔ L. Moller
HJK Helsinki
🔄
87'
R. Eremenko ↔ V. Hanninen
Gnistan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 79%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
79%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 21%
Draw 31.6%
HJK Helsinki Win 47.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan0.92
HJK Helsinki1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
WWDLW
6 GF / 16 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
10 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.67
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
4
BTTS Yes
2
4
Over 2.5
4
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 8 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 6 matches
Gnistan Statistic HJK Helsinki
1 Wins 3
1 Draws 0
6 Losses 3
6 Goals For 10
16 Goals Against 7
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
4 BTTS Yes 2
6 Over 1.5 4
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 1
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.5
10.5 Total Shots 15.5
5.5 Corners 5
40.5% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Gnistan's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 3 points while Gnistan sit 12 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring HJK Helsinki. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 3-4-3 and HJK Helsinki in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gnistan Analysis

From their first 2 matches, Gnistan have collected 0 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 1:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Eremenko (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 3 points after 2 matches. The record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 3:1 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Ezeh (1 goals), T. Mero (1 goals), T. Pukki (1 goals), with creative support from D. Ezeh (1 assists), L. Lingman (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 4 times, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:31 from Gnistan's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.62 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (79%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 3-4-3 / HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 4, draws 1, HJK Helsinki wins 8
Stats
Gnistan Gnistan
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
Shots on Goal
0
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 7
8 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 3
3 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 0
355 Total passes 494
295 Passes accurate 428
0.53 expected_goals 1.01
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gnistan
Formation
HJK Helsinki
Ramilson
Ramilson
M. H. Bjurstrom
M. H. Bjurstrom
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
E. Arko-Mensah
E. Arko-Mensah
R. Eremenko
R. Eremenko
S. Eremenko
S. Eremenko
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
D. Perez
D. Perez
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
M. Markovic
M. Markovic
M. Ylitolva
M. Ylitolva
M. Bogicevic
M. Bogicevic
V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen
L. Montano
L. Montano
L. Lingman
🎯
L. Lingman
P. Mentu
🎯
P. Mentu
D. Ezeh
🎯
D. Ezeh
M. Kirilov
M. Kirilov
A. Cicale
A. Cicale
T. Pukki
⚽ 2
T. Pukki
Gnistan 5-4-1
Starting XI
22
Ramilson
G
20
M. H. Bjurstrom
↓ 59'
D
24
R. Gnanou
D
67
A. Obileye
D
4
Marcelo Costa
D
12
E. Arko-Mensah
D
26
R. Eremenko
↓ 87'
M
14
S. Eremenko
↓ 59'
M
15
G. Europaeus
🟨 48'
M
11
D. Perez
↓ 75'
M
17
A. Akinyemi
↓ 59' 🟨 37'
F
Substitutes
32
N. Lindstrom
G
40
J. Ojala
D
27
O. Hannula
↑ 59' 🟨 73'
D
7
A. Atarah
M
23
S. Ylatupa
↑ 59'
M
10
J. Latonen
↑ 75'
F
19
V. Hanninen
↑ 87'
M
2
B. Dahlstrom
D
31
A. Jouhi
↑ 59'
M
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
44
M. Markovic
G
28
M. Ylitolva
↓ 83'
D
31
M. Bogicevic
⚽ 79'
D
6
V. Tikkanen
D
14
L. Montano
D
10
L. Lingman
🎯 44'
M
8
P. Mentu
🎯 79'
M
19
D. Ezeh
🎯 52' ↓ 83'
M
17
M. Kirilov
↓ 72'
M
7
A. Cicale
↓ 61'
M
20
T. Pukki
⚽ 44' ⚽ 52' ↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Ost
G
26
L. Lappalainen
M
24
E. Levealahti
D
18
T. Mero
↑ 61'
M
13
K. Simojoki
↑ 83'
D
2
B. Lyons-Foster
D
9
M. Borchers
↑ 61'
F
15
J. Kallinen
↑ 72'
M
22
L. Moller
↑ 83'
M
Last matches: Gnistan
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
23.07.26
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Coleraine FC
5
0
W
18.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
2
1
W
11.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
4
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
H2H: Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki
18.04.26
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
10.03.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
L
07.02.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
1
L
03.11.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
03.10.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
2
3
W
28.07.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
4
L
22.04.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
0
1
W
11.01.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
0
1
W
12.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
22.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
1
0
L
03.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
27.01.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
5
W
06.06.20
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
4
0
L
Last matches: Gnistan
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
H2H at home: Gnistan
18.04.26
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
03.11.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
28.07.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
4
L
12.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
03.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
11.07.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
H2H away: HJK Helsinki
18.04.26
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
W
03.11.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
28.07.25
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
2
4
W
12.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
4
W
03.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
1
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 6 1 29:15 14 33
W W W W D
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3 16 7 6 3 23:13 10 27
L W W D W
4 16 8 2 6 20:20 0 26
L L D L W
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7 16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9 16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 16 3 5 8 18:25 -7 14
L L W D D
11 16 2 6 8 15:32 -17 12
D W L D L
12 16 0 4 12 8:35 -27 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)