POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
17.05.2026 12:45
Stadion miejski w Katowicach
Referee: P. Raczkowski
GKS Katowice
Match Timeline
Jagiellonia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
B. Nowak · Assist: M. Kowalczyk
GKS Katowice
⚽
31'
B. Vital · Assist: S. Lozano
Jagiellonia
⚽
56'
A. Pululu
Jagiellonia
🔄
63'
A. Pululu ↔ S. Bazdar
Jagiellonia
🔄
63'
S. Lozano ↔ B. Mazurek
Jagiellonia
🔄
65'
E. Markovic ↔ M. Wedrychowski
GKS Katowice
🔄
65'
S. Milewski ↔ D. Rasak
GKS Katowice
🔄
65'
A. Zrelak ↔ I. Shkurin
GKS Katowice
🔄
76'
A. Pozo ↔ K. Jozwiak
Jagiellonia
⚽
78'
B. Galan · Assist: B. Nowak
GKS Katowice
🟨
82'
Marcin Wasielewski
GKS Katowice
🟨
85'
Borja Galán
GKS Katowice
🟨
90'
Arkadiusz Jędrych
GKS Katowice
🟨
90'
Marius Olsen
GKS Katowice
🟨
90+1'
Jesús Imaz
Jagiellonia
🔄
90+3'
M. Olsen ↔ L. Klemenz
GKS Katowice
🔄
90+3'
B. Galan ↔ E. Jirka
GKS Katowice
🔄
90+3'
E. Kozlowski ↔ M. Nahuel
Jagiellonia

GKS Katowice vs Jagiellonia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
GKS Katowice Win 62.7%
Draw 0%
Jagiellonia Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
GKS Katowice1.36
Jagiellonia1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
GKS Katowice GKS Katowice
WWDLW
48 GF / 42 GA
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WLDWL
74 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
15
BTTS Yes
29
16
Over 2.5
28
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GKS Katowice GKS Katowice 32 matches
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 46 matches
GKS Katowice Statistic Jagiellonia
14 Wins 21
6 Draws 15
12 Losses 10
48 Goals For 74
42 Goals Against 53
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
15 BTTS Yes 29
23 Over 1.5 37
16 Over 2.5 28
10 Over 3.5 13
9 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 8
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.78
12.94 Total Shots 12.93
4.72 Corners 4.61
46.4% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Jagiellonia. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with GKS Katowice expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Jagiellonia in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Jagiellonia having the stronger overall control.

GKS Katowice Analysis

GKS Katowice sit 6 with 48 points after 32 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 48:42 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Nowak (8 goals), E. Markovic (8 goals), Arkadiusz Jędrych (7 goals), with creative support from B. Nowak (11 assists), A. Czerwinski (5 assists), Marcin Wasielewski (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 10 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 49 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 51:39 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Afimico Pululu (13 goals), Jesús Imaz (13 goals), A. Pozo (3 goals), with creative support from Jesús Imaz (6 assists), Afimico Pululu (5 assists), A. Pozo (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, GKS Katowice won 2 times, Jagiellonia won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from GKS Katowice's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: GKS Katowice 3-4-2-1 / Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: GKS Katowice wins 2, draws 1, Jagiellonia wins 2

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation