ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
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Estadio El Gigante del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.9%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
No
Probability 59.2%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds 1.35
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.9%
1.40
BTTS No
59.2%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
1.35
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.48
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-0
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia Y Tiro Win 51.3%
Draw 17.1%
Patronato Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia Y Tiro0.85
Patronato0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro
WWDLW
18 GF / 22 GA
Patronato Patronato
WLDWL
12 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.63
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
10
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro 21 matches
Patronato Patronato 19 matches
Gimnasia Y Tiro Statistic Patronato
6 Wins 4
7 Draws 9
8 Losses 6
18 Goals For 12
22 Goals Against 16
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.63
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
10 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Patronato having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Patronato. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gimnasia Y Tiro Analysis

Gimnasia Y Tiro sit 10 with 24 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Patronato Analysis

Patronato approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 12:15, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia Y Tiro won 2 times, Patronato won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Gimnasia Y Tiro's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia Y Tiro 4-2-3-1 / Patronato -
H2H summary: Gimnasia Y Tiro wins 2, draws 1, Patronato wins 1
Last matches: Gimnasia Y Tiro
04.07.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Colegiales
2
1
W
21.06.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Deportivo Maipu
0
0
D
13.06.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Quilmes
0
1
L
06.06.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Midland
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Atlanta
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Martin Tucuman
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
1
L
05.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Agropecuario
2
3
L
01.05.26
Cop
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Velez Sarsfield
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Tristan Suarez
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Club Atlético Güemes
1
1
D
15.04.26
Cop
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia M.
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Chacarita Juniors
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
29.03.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Central Norte
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Nueva Chicago
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Temperley
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Almagro
2
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Patronato
2
1
W
Last matches: Patronato
05.07.26
Pri
Patronato
San Martin Tucuman
0
1
L
21.06.26
Pri
Patronato
Midland
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Patronato
Atletico DE Rafaela
0
0
D
07.06.26
Pri
Patronato
Agropecuario
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
Patronato
Tristan Suarez
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Patronato
Club Atlético Güemes
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Patronato
Chacarita Juniors
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Patronato
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Patronato
Nueva Chicago
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Temperley
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Deportivo Maipu
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Almagro
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Gimnasia Jujuy
0
2
L
29.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Colon Santa Fe
0
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Colegiales
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Quilmes
0
3
L
03.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Atlanta
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Patronato
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Patronato
San Martin Tucuman
0
0
D
H2H: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Patronato
21.02.26
H2H
Patronato
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1
2
W
12.07.25
H2H
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Patronato
2
1
W
09.03.25
H2H
Patronato
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0
0
D
23.01.23
H2H
Patronato
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2
0
L
Last matches: Gimnasia Y Tiro
06.06.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Midland
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Jujuy
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Martin Tucuman
1
0
W
05.05.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Agropecuario
2
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Club Atlético Güemes
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
29.03.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Central Norte
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Temperley
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Almagro
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Colegiales
2
1
W
H2H at home: Gimnasia Y Tiro
12.07.25
H2H
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Patronato
2
1
W
Last matches: Patronato
07.06.26
Pri
Patronato
Agropecuario
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Patronato
Club Atlético Güemes
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Patronato
San Martin S.J.
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Temperley
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Almagro
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Patronato
Gimnasia Jujuy
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Quilmes
0
3
L
03.03.26
Pri
Patronato
Atlanta
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
Patronato
San Martin Tucuman
0
0
D
H2H away: Patronato
12.07.25
H2H
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Patronato
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.81
Draw 2.82
Home 2.31
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.76
Draw 1.87
Home 3.19
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.15
Over 1.25 1.46
Over 1.5 1.68
Over 1.75 1.93
Over 2.0 2.36
Over 2.25 2.78
Over 2.5 3.18
Over 3.5 6.79
Under 0.5 5.38
Under 1.25 2.74
Under 1.5 2.20
Under 1.75 1.91
Under 2.0 1.60
Under 2.25 1.45
Under 2.5 1.35
Under 3.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.90
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 1.83
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.05
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.14
Over 1.5 1.67
Over 2.5 3.10
Over 3.5 6.50
Over 4.5 17.00
Over 5.5 34.00
Under 0.5 5.50
Under 1.5 2.10
Under 2.5 1.36
Under 3.5 1.11
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.58
Draw 2.73
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.88
Draw 1.74
Home 3.08
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.26
Draw 2.01
Home 2.69
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 0.75 1.12
Over 1.0 1.17
Over 1.25 1.42
Over 1.5 1.64
Over 1.75 1.81
Over 2.0 2.19
Over 2.25 2.62
Over 2.5 2.92
Over 2.75 3.74
Over 3.0 5.40
Over 3.25 5.90
Over 3.5 6.40
Over 3.75 9.40
Over 4.0 9.60
Over 4.5 12.50
Over 5.5 21.00
Under 0.5 5.40
Under 0.75 4.70
Under 1.0 4.00
Under 1.25 2.65
Under 1.5 2.12
Under 1.75 1.81
Under 2.0 1.54
Under 2.25 1.43
Under 2.5 1.31
Under 2.75 1.19
Under 3.0 1.09
Under 3.25 1.07
Under 3.5 1.05
Under 3.75 1.01
Under 4.0 1.01
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.88
Home 2.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 1.89
Home 3.15
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.12
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.0 1.18
Over 1.25 1.38
Over 1.5 1.60
Over 1.75 1.79
Over 2.0 2.12
Over 2.25 2.48
Over 2.5 2.80
Over 2.75 3.45
Over 3.0 4.80
Over 3.25 5.20
Over 3.5 5.50
Under 0.5 5.25
Under 1.0 4.10
Under 1.25 2.70
Under 1.5 2.17
Under 1.75 1.90
Under 2.0 1.62
Under 2.25 1.46
Under 2.5 1.36
Under 2.75 1.25
Under 3.0 1.14
Under 3.25 1.12
Under 3.5 1.10

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 11 4 4 31:21 10 37
D W W W L
2 19 10 3 6 24:15 9 33
L L W W D
3 20 8 9 3 17:11 6 33
W L D W D
4 19 7 9 3 19:17 2 30
W D W W W
5 20 8 4 8 27:21 6 28
W W D L L
6 19 7 6 6 20:15 5 27
D D L L W
7 20 7 6 7 15:16 -1 27
L L D D W
8 19 6 8 5 16:15 1 26
W D L D L
9 19 6 7 6 17:17 0 25
L W D L W
10 19 7 4 8 16:19 -3 25
W W W D W
11 19 6 6 7 18:15 3 24
W L W D W
12 19 6 6 7 18:20 -2 24
W D L W D
13 19 6 5 8 18:19 -1 23
L W W L D
14 18 6 5 7 18:19 -1 23
L W L L
15 19 6 4 9 15:20 -5 22
W D L L L
16 19 4 9 6 12:16 -4 21
L D D D D
17 19 5 4 10 18:32 -14 19
L L L W L
18 19 4 6 9 14:24 -10 18
L L L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation