05.09.2026 17:30
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo
Referee: D. Zamora
Gimnasia L.P.
Match Timeline
Tigre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
Nacho Fernández
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
45'
Bruno Leyes
Tigre
45'
German Conti · Assist: N. Fernandez
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
46'
B. Leyes ↔ M. Garay
Tigre
🔄
46'
S. Lopez ↔ M. Mendez
Tigre
🟨
49'
Mateo Seoane
Gimnasia L.P.
50'
I. Russo
Tigre
🔄
61'
M. Zalazar ↔ F. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
62'
P. Silva Torrejon ↔ M. Melluso
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
64'
Felipe Zenobio
Tigre
🟨
65'
Mauro Méndez
Tigre
🟨
66'
Ignacio Russo
Tigre
67'
A. Auzmendi
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
68'
M. Seoane ↔ A. Colazo
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
69'
Enzo Martínez
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
77'
L. Janson ↔ A. Steimbach
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
77'
A. Auzmendi ↔ M. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
78'
S. Gonzalez ↔ I. Subiabre
Tigre
🔄
78'
V. Moreno ↔ I. Peluffo
Tigre
🟨
90+4'
Ignacio Miramón
Gimnasia L.P.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Tigre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.9%
Odds 2.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 3.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.9%
2.64
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.25
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
3.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73%
1.46
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia L.P. Win 67.9%
Draw 4.8%
Tigre Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia L.P.1.14
Tigre1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WWDLW
42 GF / 36 GA
Tigre Tigre
WLDWL
26 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
15
BTTS Yes
11
16
Over 2.5
6
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 30 matches
Tigre Tigre 25 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Statistic Tigre
16 Wins 8
4 Draws 11
10 Losses 6
42 Goals For 26
36 Goals Against 19
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
15 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 14
16 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 10
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.83
11.24 Total Shots 12.96
3.8 Corners 4.04
44.5% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Tigre's more proactive style and Gimnasia L.P.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tigre. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia L.P. expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Tigre in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tigre having the stronger overall control.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Gimnasia L.P. have collected 26 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcelo Torres (4 goals), Agustín Auzmendi (2 goals), Franco Torres (2 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (4 assists), Agustín Auzmendi (2 assists), Pedro Silva (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tigre Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Tigre have collected 20 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 18:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ignacio Russo (1 goals), Santiago López (1 goals), Gonzalo Martínez (1 goals), with creative support from Ignacio Russo (1 assists), Valentín Moreno (1 assists), Jabes Saralegui (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia L.P. won 2 times, Tigre won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Gimnasia L.P.'s perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Tigre 4-4-2
H2H summary: Gimnasia L.P. wins 2, draws 4, Tigre wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D D W D L
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D L D W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D D L W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10
Tigre Away
16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L D D L
Knockout Phase