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23.10.2026 22:00
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia L.P. Win 45.2%
Draw 16.6%
Sarmiento Junin Win 38.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia L.P.1.38
Sarmiento Junin1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WWDLW
51 GF / 43 GA
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WLDWL
35 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
21
BTTS Yes
15
19
Over 2.5
14
4.06
Shots on Goal
3.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 36 matches
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 30 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Statistic Sarmiento Junin
18 Wins 13
8 Draws 3
10 Losses 14
51 Goals For 35
43 Goals Against 40
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
21 BTTS Yes 15
29 Over 1.5 22
19 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
4.06 Shots On Goal 3.79
12.23 Total Shots 10.64
4 Corners 3.64
45.5% Ball Possession 43.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sarmiento Junin. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia L.P. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Sarmiento Junin in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarmiento Junin having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

Gimnasia L.P. sit 6 with 26 points after 16 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Auzmendi (5 goals), M. Torres (5 goals), I. Fernández (2 goals), with creative support from A. Steimbach (4 assists), A. Auzmendi (3 assists), I. Fernández (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

Sarmiento Junin sit 11 with 19 points after 16 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, while the 13:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Marabel (9 goals), Mauricio Leonel Martínez (2 goals), C. Zabala (1 goals), with creative support from J. Marabel (4 assists), C. Zabala (1 assists), J. Contrera (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia L.P. won 4 times, Sarmiento Junin won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Gimnasia L.P.'s perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.4%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia L.P. 4-4-2 / Sarmiento Junin 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gimnasia L.P. wins 4, draws 6, Sarmiento Junin wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L D W W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
D W L W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D W L D D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D W W D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W W D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W D D D D
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L L W W W
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L W W L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
D W L D W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase