ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
27.09.2026 19:00
Estadio 23 de Agosto

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia Jujuy Win 69%
Draw 9.1%
San Martin Tucuman Win 22%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia Jujuy1.31
San Martin Tucuman1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia Jujuy Gimnasia Jujuy
WWDLW
49 GF / 40 GA
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
WLDWL
33 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
21
BTTS Yes
14
18
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia Jujuy Gimnasia Jujuy 32 matches
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 32 matches
Gimnasia Jujuy Statistic San Martin Tucuman
15 Wins 9
10 Draws 14
7 Losses 9
49 Goals For 33
40 Goals Against 31
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
21 BTTS Yes 14
28 Over 1.5 23
18 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward San Martin Tucuman having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward San Martin Tucuman. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Gimnasia Jujuy arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 52 points compared to San Martin Tucuman in 11 on 39, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Gimnasia Jujuy Analysis

Gimnasia Jujuy come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 52 points after 29 matches. They have recorded 15 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a 44:35 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

San Martin Tucuman Analysis

So far, San Martin Tucuman have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 39 points from 30 matches. The record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 32:30 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia Jujuy won 1 times, San Martin Tucuman won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:12 from Gimnasia Jujuy's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
H2H summary: Gimnasia Jujuy wins 1, draws 2, San Martin Tucuman wins 5

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 14 12 4 31:15 16 54
D D D W L
2 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
W D W W W
3 30 15 8 7 45:36 9 53
D W W D D
4 30 15 4 11 34:28 6 49
D W W L L
5 30 13 8 9 34:25 9 47
W W L L W
6 30 12 9 9 33:27 6 45
W D L W W
7 30 12 9 9 31:27 4 45
L D W W L
8 30 11 9 10 25:26 -1 42
W L L W D
9 30 11 8 11 37:31 6 41
D D D L W
10 30 11 7 12 29:30 -1 40
L W L W W
11 30 9 12 9 32:30 2 39
L W L D W
12 30 9 9 12 26:34 -8 36
W L W D L
13 30 9 8 13 28:27 1 35
L W L L L
14 30 9 8 13 26:36 -10 35
L D L W D
15 29 8 8 13 21:28 -7 32
L W L L L
16 29 5 15 9 23:30 -7 30
D D L W D
17 30 8 6 16 22:31 -9 30
W L L L L
18 30 5 8 17 23:51 -28 23
L L L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation