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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
20.10.2026 19:00
Priestfield Stadium

Gillingham vs Port Vale Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.5%
- ▥
BTTS No
56%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gillingham Win 77.5%
Draw 6%
Port Vale Win 16.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gillingham1.19
Port Vale1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gillingham Gillingham
WWDLW
22 GF / 15 GA
Port Vale Port Vale
WLDWL
15 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.77
6
BTTS Yes
3
8
Over 2.5
3
3.27
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gillingham Gillingham 15 matches
Port Vale Port Vale 13 matches
Gillingham Statistic Port Vale
7 Wins 7
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 4
22 Goals For 15
15 Goals Against 10
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.77
6 BTTS Yes 3
11 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 4
3.27 Shots On Goal 3.33
9.73 Total Shots 10.56
3.18 Corners 4.56
45.8% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Gillingham's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gillingham expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Port Vale in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Port Vale having the stronger overall control. Port Vale arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gillingham arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 16 points compared to Port Vale in 22 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Port Vale.

Gillingham Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 16 points from 10 games, Gillingham bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 15:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Brophy (3 goals), Ronan Hale (3 goals), L. Sillah (2 goals), with creative support from N. Freeman (3 assists), J. Brophy (1 assists), Ronan Hale (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Port Vale Analysis

Port Vale sit 22 with 8 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 4:9 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on G. Byers (2 goals), K. Dempsey (1 goals), with creative support from J. Headley (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham won 4 times, Port Vale won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Gillingham's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Gillingham 3-4-3 / Port Vale 3-5-2
H2H summary: Gillingham wins 4, draws 4, Port Vale wins 6

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League