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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
19.09.2026 14:00
Priestfield Stadium
Gillingham
Match Timeline
Bristol Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
55'
J. Brophy · Assist: H. Waldock
Gillingham
🔄
62'
R. Hale ↔ G. McCleary
Gillingham
🔄
64'
B. Kamwa ↔ F. Cavegn
Bristol Rovers
🟨
65'
Ellis Harrison
Bristol Rovers
🟨
68'
Kofi Balmer
Bristol Rovers
🔄
72'
S. Forde ↔ R. Russell-Denny
Bristol Rovers
🔄
75'
L. Sillah ↔ W. Goodwin
Gillingham
🔄
80'
E. Harrison ↔ J. Quigley
Bristol Rovers
🔄
83'
E. King ↔ M. Luxton
Gillingham
🔄
83'
H. Waldock ↔ S. Kendall
Gillingham
⚽
85'
S. Kendall · Assist: N. Freeman
Gillingham
⚽
89'
S. Kendall
Gillingham
🟨
90+5'
Garath McCleary
Gillingham

Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gillingham Win 28.9%
Draw 4.3%
Bristol Rovers Win 66.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gillingham1.38
Bristol Rovers1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gillingham Gillingham
WWDLW
14 GF / 8 GA
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers
WLDWL
22 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
2
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
4.17
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gillingham Gillingham 10 matches
Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 11 matches
Gillingham Statistic Bristol Rovers
5 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 3
14 Goals For 22
8 Goals Against 15
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 2
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
4 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 1
4.17 Shots On Goal 5.17
11.67 Total Shots 17.67
4.17 Corners 7
44.3% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Bristol Rovers's more proactive style and Gillingham's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Bristol Rovers look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bristol Rovers. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gillingham expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bristol Rovers in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bristol Rovers having the stronger overall control. Bristol Rovers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 12 points while Gillingham sit 13 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Gillingham Analysis

Gillingham are currently 13 in the standings with 6 points from 5 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Brophy (2 goals), O. Beckles (1 goals), Conor McManus (1 goals), with creative support from N. Freeman (2 assists), A. Smith (1 assists), E. King (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bristol Rovers Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 12 points from 5 games, Bristol Rovers bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Kamwa (2 goals), F. Cavegn (2 goals), T. James (1 goals), with creative support from T. James (1 assists), Brad Young (1 assists), K. Balmer (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham won 8 times, Bristol Rovers won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:12 from Gillingham's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Gillingham 3-4-2-1 / Bristol Rovers 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gillingham wins 8, draws 3, Bristol Rovers wins 3

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:10 5 19
W W W W D
2 8 5 3 0 20:11 9 18
W W W D D
3 10 4 6 0 12:7 5 18
W W D D D
4 10 4 4 2 15:10 5 16
W D L W W
5 9 4 3 2 17:11 6 15
D W L W D
6 9 3 6 0 12:6 6 15
D D W D D
7 10 4 3 3 17:14 3 15
D W L W W
8 10 4 3 3 16:16 0 15
L L W D W
9 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L L W L L
10 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
D W W W D
11 10 3 4 3 13:11 2 13
L L L W W
12 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
W D W D D
13 10 2 6 2 13:13 0 12
D L D D L
14 10 3 3 4 6:6 0 12
W W L D L
15 10 2 5 3 13:14 -1 11
D W D D L
16 10 2 5 3 10:11 -1 11
D L L L D
17 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L L D L L
18 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
L W D D W
19 9 2 4 3 10:13 -3 10
L D D D L
20 10 2 4 4 12:16 -4 10
L L D W D
21 9 2 2 5 9:13 -4 8
D L L L L
22 8 2 2 4 4:9 -5 8
W L W L L
23 8 1 4 3 4:7 -3 7
D L L W D
24 8 1 2 5 8:15 -7 5
D L L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League