PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
11.05.2026 19:15
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Referee: M. Fonseca
GIL Vicente
Match Timeline
Arouca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Agustín Moreira
GIL Vicente
🟨
43'
Jose Fontán
Arouca
🔄
46'
A. Moreira ↔ J. Fernandes
GIL Vicente
🔄
46'
Ze Carlos ↔ F. Caseres
GIL Vicente
⚽
61'
B. Kuipers · Assist: J. Sanchez
Arouca
⚽
63'
L. Esteves · Assist: G. Varela
GIL Vicente
🔄
64'
G. Varela ↔ H. Hernandez
GIL Vicente
🔄
64'
S. Garcia ↔ M. Fernandez
GIL Vicente
⚽
67'
I. Barbero · Assist: P. Gozalbez
Arouca
🔄
76'
A. Trezza ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🔄
82'
I. Barbero ↔ D. Nandin
Arouca
⚽
82'
T. Fukui · Assist: D. Nandin
Arouca
🔄
83'
G. Konan ↔ Carlos Eduardo
GIL Vicente
🟨
89'
Héctor Hernández
GIL Vicente
🔄
90+2'
P. Gozalbez ↔ B. Mansilla
Arouca
🔄
90+2'
N. Djouahra ↔ J. Silva
Arouca

GIL Vicente vs Arouca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
GIL Vicente Win 65.6%
Draw 21.2%
Arouca Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
GIL Vicente1.64
Arouca1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
WWDLW
46 GF / 32 GA
Arouca Arouca
WLDWL
41 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
15
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
21
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 32 matches
Arouca Arouca 32 matches
GIL Vicente Statistic Arouca
13 Wins 10
11 Draws 6
8 Losses 16
46 Goals For 41
32 Goals Against 62
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
15 BTTS Yes 17
24 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 21
8 Over 3.5 15
12 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.47
13.88 Total Shots 10.44
5.69 Corners 3.72
50.3% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between GIL Vicente's more proactive style and Arouca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Arouca.

GIL Vicente Analysis

GIL Vicente sit 6 with 50 points after 32 league matches. The record of 13 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 46:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Murilo de Souza (11 goals), Pablo (10 goals), G. Varela (6 goals), with creative support from L. Esteves (7 assists), Murilo de Souza (4 assists), Santi García (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Arouca Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Arouca have collected 36 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, while the 41:62 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), H. Lee (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Esgaio (4 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), N. Djouahra (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, GIL Vicente won 0 times, Arouca won 8 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:29 from GIL Vicente's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.8%)
Predicted formations: GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1 / Arouca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: GIL Vicente wins 0, draws 7, Arouca wins 8

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2