PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Referee: M. Fonseca
GIL Vicente
Match Timeline
Arouca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Agustín Moreira
GIL Vicente
🟨
43'
Jose Fontán
Arouca
🔄
46'
A. Moreira ↔ J. Fernandes
GIL Vicente
🔄
46'
Ze Carlos ↔ F. Caseres
GIL Vicente
61'
B. Kuipers · Assist: J. Sanchez
Arouca
63'
L. Esteves · Assist: G. Varela
GIL Vicente
🔄
64'
G. Varela ↔ H. Hernandez
GIL Vicente
🔄
64'
S. Garcia ↔ M. Fernandez
GIL Vicente
67'
I. Barbero · Assist: P. Gozalbez
Arouca
🔄
76'
A. Trezza ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🔄
82'
I. Barbero ↔ D. Nandin
Arouca
82'
T. Fukui · Assist: D. Nandin
Arouca
🔄
83'
G. Konan ↔ Carlos Eduardo
GIL Vicente
🟨
89'
Héctor Hernández
GIL Vicente
🔄
90+2'
P. Gozalbez ↔ B. Mansilla
Arouca
🔄
90+2'
N. Djouahra ↔ J. Silva
Arouca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
GIL Vicente Win 65.6%
Draw 21.2%
Arouca Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
GIL Vicente1.64
Arouca1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
WWDLW
46 GF / 32 GA
Arouca Arouca
WLDWL
41 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
15
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
21
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 32 matches
Arouca Arouca 32 matches
GIL Vicente Statistic Arouca
13 Wins 10
11 Draws 6
8 Losses 16
46 Goals For 41
32 Goals Against 62
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
15 BTTS Yes 17
24 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 21
8 Over 3.5 15
12 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.47
13.88 Total Shots 10.44
5.69 Corners 3.72
50.3% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between GIL Vicente's more proactive style and Arouca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Arouca.

GIL Vicente Analysis

GIL Vicente sit 6 with 50 points after 32 league matches. The record of 13 wins, 11 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 46:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Murilo de Souza (11 goals), Pablo (10 goals), G. Varela (6 goals), with creative support from L. Esteves (7 assists), Murilo de Souza (4 assists), Santi García (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Arouca Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Arouca have collected 36 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, while the 41:62 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), H. Lee (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Esgaio (4 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), N. Djouahra (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, GIL Vicente won 0 times, Arouca won 8 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:29 from GIL Vicente's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.8%)
Predicted formations: GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1 / Arouca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: GIL Vicente wins 0, draws 7, Arouca wins 8
Stats
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
Arouca Arouca
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 2
13 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 2
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
354 Total passes 453
312 Passes accurate 379
0.81 expected_goals 1.39
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

GIL Vicente
Formation
Arouca
Figueira Daniel
Figueira Daniel
Ze Carlos
Ze Carlos
M. Elimbi
M. Elimbi
J. Buatu
J. Buatu
G. Konan
G. Konan
Ze Carlos
Ze Carlos
S. Garcia
S. Garcia
Murilo de Souza
Murilo de Souza
L. Esteves
L. Esteves
A. Moreira
A. Moreira
G. Varela
🎯
G. Varela
I. De Arruabarrena
I. De Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio
J. Sanchez
🎯
J. Sanchez
J. Fontan
J. Fontan
B. Kuipers
B. Kuipers
E. van Ee
E. van Ee
T. Fukui
T. Fukui
A. Trezza
A. Trezza
P. Gozalbez
🎯
P. Gozalbez
N. Djouahra
N. Djouahra
I. Barbero
I. Barbero
GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
Figueira Daniel
G
2
Ze Carlos
D
4
M. Elimbi
D
39
J. Buatu
D
3
G. Konan
↓ 83'
D
6
Ze Carlos
↓ 46'
M
95
S. Garcia
↓ 64'
M
77
Murilo de Souza
M
10
L. Esteves
⚽ 63'
M
27
A. Moreira
↓ 46' 🟨 22'
M
89
G. Varela
🎯 63' ↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
30
Lucao
G
17
Bermejo
F
20
S. Hevertton
D
48
A. Espigares
D
23
H. Hernandez
↑ 64' 🟨 89'
F
11
J. Fernandes
↑ 46'
F
32
M. Fernandez
↑ 64'
M
5
F. Caseres
↑ 46'
M
29
Carlos Eduardo
↑ 83'
F
Arouca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
I. De Arruabarrena
G
28
Tiago Esgaio
D
15
J. Sanchez
🎯 61'
D
3
J. Fontan
🟨 43'
D
25
B. Kuipers
⚽ 61'
D
22
E. van Ee
M
21
T. Fukui
⚽ 82'
M
19
A. Trezza
↓ 76'
M
10
P. Gozalbez
🎯 67' ↓ 90+2'
M
7
N. Djouahra
↓ 90+2'
M
17
I. Barbero
⚽ 67' ↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
30
J. Vinarcik
G
9
F. Mayulu
F
24
B. Mansilla
↑ 90+2'
F
20
J. Santiago Perez
M
2
J. Silva
↑ 90+2'
D
23
D. Nandin
🎯 82' ↑ 82'
F
6
D. Monteiro
D
66
O. Fayed
D
46
M. Flores
↑ 76'
M
Last matches: GIL Vicente
16.05.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Sporting CP
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Rio Ave
0
0
D
27.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
0
1
L
13.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Tondela
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
AVS
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Alverca
2
2
D
08.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Estrela
2
2
D
02.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Benfica
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Estoril
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
SC Braga
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Famalicao
5
0
W
26.01.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
FC Porto
0
3
L
17.01.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Nacional
2
1
W
02.01.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Sporting CP
1
1
D
28.12.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Arouca
2
2
D
20.12.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Rio Ave
2
2
D
13.12.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
1
1
D
Last matches: Arouca
16.05.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estrela
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Arouca
SC Braga
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estoril
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Moreirense
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Benfica
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Famalicao
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Arouca
FC Porto
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Nacional
3
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Casa Pia
2
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Guimaraes
3
2
W
31.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Rio Ave
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Sporting CP
1
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Arouca
AVS
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Arouca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
21.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Santa Clara
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
0
W
H2H: GIL Vicente vs Arouca
11.05.26
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
3
L
28.12.25
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
10.05.25
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
27.12.24
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
1
1
D
26.04.24
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
2
2
D
16.12.23
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
3
0
L
05.02.23
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
08.11.22
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
4
L
15.08.22
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
1
0
L
02.04.22
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
2
1
L
05.11.21
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
25.03.18
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
0
3
L
22.10.17
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
1
0
L
22.03.15
H2H
Arouca
GIL Vicente
3
1
L
02.11.14
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
Last matches: GIL Vicente
27.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
AVS
3
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Alverca
2
2
D
02.03.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Benfica
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
SC Braga
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Famalicao
5
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Nacional
2
1
W
02.01.26
Pri
GIL Vicente
Sporting CP
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Rio Ave
2
2
D
29.11.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Tondela
0
1
L
03.11.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
1
0
W
04.10.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Estrela
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Estoril
2
0
W
29.08.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
2
0
W
18.08.25
Pri
GIL Vicente
FC Porto
0
2
L
H2H at home: GIL Vicente
11.05.26
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
3
L
10.05.25
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
26.04.24
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
2
2
D
05.02.23
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
08.11.22
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
4
L
05.11.21
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
25.03.18
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
0
3
L
02.11.14
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
Last matches: Arouca
24.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Arouca
SC Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Moreirense
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Famalicao
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Arouca
FC Porto
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Casa Pia
2
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Rio Ave
3
0
W
17.01.26
Pri
Arouca
AVS
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
1
3
L
21.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Santa Clara
0
0
D
07.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Estrela
1
3
L
07.11.25
Pri
Arouca
Estoril
3
4
L
25.10.25
Pri
Arouca
Benfica
0
5
L
20.09.25
Pri
Arouca
Nacional
2
1
W
30.08.25
Pri
Arouca
Guimaraes
1
1
D
17.08.25
Pri
Arouca
Sporting CP
0
6
L
H2H away: Arouca
11.05.26
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
3
W
10.05.25
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
26.04.24
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
2
2
D
05.02.23
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
08.11.22
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
4
W
05.11.21
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D
25.03.18
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
0
3
W
02.11.14
H2H
GIL Vicente
Arouca
1
1
D