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19.10.2026 19:00
Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.7%
Odds 3.07
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.71
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.7%
3.07 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.71 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Getafe Win 76.7%
Draw 14.6%
Rayo Vallecano Win 8.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Getafe1.4
Rayo Vallecano1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Getafe Getafe
WWDLW
14 GF / 21 GA
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WLDWL
16 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
2.27
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
9
2.91
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Getafe Getafe 17 matches
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 11 matches
Getafe Statistic Rayo Vallecano
5 Wins 3
5 Draws 2
7 Losses 6
14 Goals For 16
21 Goals Against 25
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 2.27
8 BTTS Yes 10
10 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 0
6 Failed To Score 1
2.91 Shots On Goal 4.57
10.91 Total Shots 13.43
3.82 Corners 5.29
41.5% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Getafe expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Rayo Vallecano in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rayo Vallecano having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rayo Vallecano.

Getafe Analysis

With 8 points from 8 games and a place of 14, Getafe still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 4:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Satriano (1 goals), Iván Azón (1 goals), Ramón Terrats (1 goals), with creative support from M. Satriano (1 assists), Iván Azón (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

So far, Rayo Vallecano have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Sergio Camello (7 goals), Álvaro García (1 goals), Adrià Pedrosa (1 goals), with creative support from Unai López (3 assists), Álvaro García (2 assists), Sergio Camello (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Getafe won 3 times, Rayo Vallecano won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:14 from Getafe's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.3%)
Predicted formations: Getafe 5-4-1 / Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3
Missing players: Getafe 6, Rayo Vallecano 2
H2H summary: Getafe wins 3, draws 7, Rayo Vallecano wins 5

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
4 8 6 0 2 19:8 11 18
W L W W L
5 8 4 2 2 13:12 1 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 1 3 12:15 -3 13
W W L W D
7 8 3 2 3 12:8 4 11
L D L L W
8 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
9 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
10 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
11 8 1 5 2 8:6 2 8
D W D D D
12 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
13 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
14 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
15 8 2 2 4 13:23 -10 8
D L L W L
16 8 2 2 4 8:18 -10 8
L D L L L
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 8 0 4 4 4:13 -9 4
D L L D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2