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ITALY › SERIE A
10.10.2026 13:00
Luigi Ferraris
Referee: Fabio Maresca

Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 63.5%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
63.5%
1.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.13 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.37 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Genoa Win 36.5%
Draw 22.2%
Fiorentina Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Genoa1.26
Fiorentina2.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Genoa Genoa
WWDLW
14 GF / 27 GA
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WLDWL
28 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
2.15
2.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
7
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
9
4.43
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Genoa Genoa 13 matches
Fiorentina Fiorentina 13 matches
Genoa Statistic Fiorentina
4 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
7 Losses 4
14 Goals For 28
27 Goals Against 20
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 2.15
2.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
7 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 2
4.43 Shots On Goal 6
15.71 Total Shots 15.86
6.14 Corners 4.14
47.3% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Genoa expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fiorentina in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fiorentina having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fiorentina. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Fiorentina carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 17 with 4 points while Genoa sit 19 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Genoa Analysis

With 1 points from 5 games and a place of 19, Genoa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 3:10, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Milutin Osmajić (2 goals), Johan Vásquez (1 goals), with creative support from Lorenzo Colombo (2 assists), Djibril Sow (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina sit 17 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Franco Mastantuono (3 goals), Mateo Pellegrino (2 goals), Rolando Mandragora (1 goals), with creative support from Rolando Mandragora (1 assists), Álex Jiménez (1 assists), Radu Drăguşin (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Genoa won 1 times, Fiorentina won 6 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:24 from Genoa's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.8%)
Predicted formations: Genoa 3-4-2-1 / Fiorentina 4-3-3
Missing players: Genoa 5, Fiorentina 2
H2H summary: Genoa wins 1, draws 8, Fiorentina wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 14:3 11 13
D W W W W
2 5 4 1 0 15:8 7 13
D W W W W
3 5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
4 5 4 0 1 5:2 3 12
W W W L W
5 5 3 2 0 10:4 6 11
W D D W W
6 5 3 1 1 9:4 5 10
W D W W L
7 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W L D W W
8 5 3 1 1 9:6 3 10
L W W W D
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
D W L L W
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
L W D W L
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12 5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
L W L L W
13 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
14 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
15 5 1 1 3 4:7 -3 4
W L D L L
16 5 1 1 3 8:12 -4 4
W L D L L
17 5 1 1 3 6:12 -6 4
D W L L L
18 5 0 2 3 3:6 -3 2
D L D L L
19
Genoa Home
5 0 1 4 3:10 -7 1
L D L L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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