WALES PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Essity Stadium
Referee: A. Jones
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Match Timeline
Colwyn Bay
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
L. Robles
Colwyn Bay
🟨
31'
D. Cowan
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🟨
34'
E. Roberts
Colwyn Bay
35'
C. West
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🟨
38'
L. Sirrell
Colwyn Bay
🟨
40'
M. Woodcock
GAP Connah S Quay FC
40'
J. Cumming
Colwyn Bay
🔄
46'
A. Sharif ↔ J. Oswell
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
46'
A. Edwards ↔ J. Davies
Colwyn Bay
🔄
46'
L. Robles ↔ I. Kargbo
Colwyn Bay
🔄
64'
M. Woodcock ↔ Z. Ismail
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🟨
65'
C. West
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
66'
J. Cumming ↔ A. Williams
Colwyn Bay
🔄
66'
M. Hill ↔ A. Williams
Colwyn Bay
🟨
79'
C. Partridge
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
79'
E. Roberts ↔ S. Hart
Colwyn Bay
🔄
84'
H. Franklin ↔ J. Bennett
GAP Connah S Quay FC
🔄
84'
C. Partridge ↔ J. Waterhouse
GAP Connah S Quay FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.3%
-
Probability Distribution
GAP Connah S Quay FC Win 54.5%
Draw 20.4%
Colwyn Bay Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
GAP Connah S Quay FC1.63
Colwyn Bay1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC
WWDLW
60 GF / 37 GA
Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay
WLDWL
40 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
21
BTTS Yes
14
22
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC 31 matches
Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 31 matches
GAP Connah S Quay FC Statistic Colwyn Bay
16 Wins 12
9 Draws 8
6 Losses 11
60 Goals For 40
37 Goals Against 36
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
21 BTTS Yes 14
27 Over 1.5 20
22 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Colwyn Bay. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. GAP Connah S Quay FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 47 points compared to Colwyn Bay in 6 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Colwyn Bay having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

GAP Connah S Quay FC Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 47 points from 22 matches. The record of 14 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 48:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Hughes (15 goals), H. Franklin (13 goals), C. West (8 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Colwyn Bay Analysis

Colwyn Bay are currently 6 in the standings with 30 points from 22 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 29:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Davies (13 goals), L. Robles (6 goals), N. Peate (5 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, GAP Connah S Quay FC won 4 times, Colwyn Bay won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:10 from GAP Connah S Quay FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.6%)
Predicted formations: GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-3-3 / Colwyn Bay -
H2H summary: GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 4, draws 3, Colwyn Bay wins 1

Lineups

GAP Connah S Quay FC
Formation
Colwyn Bay
K. Margetson
K. Margetson
C. West
C. West
H. Franklin
H. Franklin
M. Woodcock
M. Woodcock
D. Cowan
D. Cowan
D. Poole
D. Poole
A. Sharif
A. Sharif
J. Cook
J. Cook
F. Redshaw
F. Redshaw
J. Jones
J. Jones
C. Partridge
C. Partridge
A. Brown
A. Brown
N. Peate
N. Peate
L. Sirrell
L. Sirrell
J. Cumming
J. Cumming
L. Robles
L. Robles
E. Roberts
E. Roberts
A. Moore
A. Moore
M. Hill
M. Hill
R. Astles
R. Astles
A. Edwards
A. Edwards
G. Hughes
G. Hughes
GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
K. Margetson
8
C. West
⚽ 35' 🟨 65'
12
H. Franklin
↓ 84'
18
M. Woodcock
↓ 64' 🟨 40'
20
D. Cowan
🟨 31'
22
D. Poole
23
A. Sharif
↓ 46'
26
J. Cook
27
F. Redshaw
28
J. Jones
34
C. Partridge
↓ 84' 🟨 79'
Substitutes
9
J. Oswell
↑ 46'
10
Z. Ismail
↑ 64'
32
J. Hughes
33
J. Bennett
↑ 84'
35
R. Berry
37
J. Waterhouse
↑ 84'
42
T. Malcolm
Colwyn Bay 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
51
A. Brown
4
N. Peate
5
L. Sirrell
🟨 38'
7
J. Cumming
⚽ 40' ↓ 66'
10
L. Robles
↓ 46' 🟨 31'
11
E. Roberts
↓ 79' 🟨 34'
12
A. Moore
19
M. Hill
↓ 66'
21
R. Astles
23
A. Edwards
↓ 46'
24
G. Hughes
Substitutes
3
S. Hart
↑ 79'
9
J. Davies
↑ 46'
14
A. Williams
↑ 66'
20
A. Williams
↑ 66'
22
I. Kargbo
↑ 46'
30
B. Efan
45
L. Murphy
Last matches: GAP Connah S Quay FC
16.07.26
UEF
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Ballkani
2
3
L
08.07.26
UEF
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Ballkani
0
0
D
27.06.26
Fri
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Queen of the South
1
0
W
23.06.26
Fri
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Larne
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
The New Saints
1
2
L
29.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
4
2
W
03.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
The New Saints
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
2
D
13.01.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
2
2
D
03.01.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
3
1
W
31.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
The New Saints
3
1
W
26.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Flint Town United
2
0
W
21.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Briton Ferry
4
2
W
05.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
29.11.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
llanelli AFC
2
1
W
Last matches: Colwyn Bay
25.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Bootle
1
0
W
14.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Marine
0
2
L
11.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Altrincham
2
2
D
06.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Rhyl
3
2
W
03.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Denbigh Town
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Bala Town
4
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
2
L
28.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
3
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
3
L
21.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
3
1
W
13.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
13.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
1
L
01.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
05.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
H2H: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Colwyn Bay
18.04.26
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
1
1
D
24.01.26
H2H
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
2
D
05.12.25
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
10.08.25
H2H
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
1
D
29.11.23
H2H
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2
3
W
26.09.23
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
12.11.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
4
0
W
19.02.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
0
2
L
Last matches: GAP Connah S Quay FC
08.07.26
UEF
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Ballkani
0
0
D
29.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
2
1
W
03.03.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
The New Saints
1
2
L
06.02.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Barry Town
3
1
W
31.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
The New Saints
3
1
W
21.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Briton Ferry
4
2
W
05.12.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
08.11.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
4
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Haverfordwest County AFC
3
3
D
04.10.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
llanelli AFC
3
0
W
23.09.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
1
2
L
13.09.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
1
1
D
02.09.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Bala Town
1
3
L
25.08.25
Pre
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Flint Town United
3
2
W
H2H at home: GAP Connah S Quay FC
18.04.26
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
1
1
D
05.12.25
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
26.09.23
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
W
12.11.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
4
0
W
19.02.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
0
2
L
Last matches: Colwyn Bay
14.07.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Marine
0
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Colwyn Bay
Bala Town
4
0
W
28.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
2
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
0
W
13.01.26
Pre
Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
1
L
27.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
05.12.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1
2
L
15.11.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Haverfordwest County AFC
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Briton Ferry
2
0
W
07.10.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Flint Town United
1
0
W
27.09.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Penybont
0
1
L
20.09.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
llanelli AFC
0
0
D
06.09.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
4
1
W
22.08.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Bala Town
0
1
L
16.08.25
Pre
Colwyn Bay
Barry Town
1
1
D
H2H away: Colwyn Bay
18.04.26
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
1
1
D
05.12.25
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
L
26.09.23
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
2
1
L
12.11.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
4
0
L
19.02.22
H2H
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Colwyn Bay
0
2
W

Standings

Cymru Premier , Championship Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 26 2 4 81:25 56 80
W W W L W
2 32 16 10 6 61:38 23 58
D L D W W
3 32 12 10 10 43:33 10 46
L L W D W
4 32 12 9 11 56:47 9 45
W W L L L
5 32 12 9 11 41:37 4 45
L D L D W
6 32 11 8 13 39:49 -10 41
W W L L D
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Qualification Playoffs