JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Panasonic Stadium Suita
Referee: Y. Sutani
Gamba Osaka
Match Timeline
Fagiano Okayama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
D. Hummet
Fagiano Okayama
26'
T. Kishimoto · Assist: G. Miura
Gamba Osaka
🟨
42'
Noah Kenshin Browne
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
56'
H. Motoyama ↔ M. Matsumoto
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
57'
N. Browne ↔ K. Shirai
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
60'
T. Suzuki ↔ R. Mito
Gamba Osaka
🔄
61'
D. Hummet ↔ T. Usami
Gamba Osaka
🔄
61'
R. Yamashita ↔ K. Okunuki
Gamba Osaka
65'
I. Jebali · Assist: T. Usami
Gamba Osaka
🔄
67'
T. Kimura ↔ K. Kawano
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
67'
K. Ichimi ↔ Werik Popo
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
68'
Welton ↔ R. Meshino
Gamba Osaka
72'
A. Esaka · Assist: Werik Popo
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
74'
Genta Miura
Gamba Osaka
🔄
85'
K. Ogura ↔ J. Nishikawa
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
88'
R. Hatsuse ↔ S. Nakano
Gamba Osaka

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Gamba Osaka Win 51.3%
Draw 13.3%
Fagiano Okayama Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gamba Osaka1.63
Fagiano Okayama1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka
WWDLW
21 GF / 16 GA
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WLDWL
10 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
8
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
4
6.1
Shots on Goal
3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 13 matches
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 11 matches
Gamba Osaka Statistic Fagiano Okayama
5 Wins 2
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 5
21 Goals For 10
16 Goals Against 18
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
8 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 4
6 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 2
6.1 Shots On Goal 3.4
13.8 Total Shots 12.7
4 Corners 6.2
55.9% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Gamba Osaka's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gamba Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fagiano Okayama in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fagiano Okayama having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fagiano Okayama. Gamba Osaka arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 17 points compared to Fagiano Okayama in 10 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Gamba Osaka Analysis

Gamba Osaka sit 3 with 17 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 16:14, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Hummet (6 goals), R. Meshino (2 goals), H. Minamino (1 goals), with creative support from I. Jebali (2 assists), D. Hummet (1 assists), R. Mito (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

With 11 points from 10 games and a place of 10, Fagiano Okayama still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats with a 11:20 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Matsumoto (2 goals), Takaya Kimura (2 goals), Werik Popo (2 goals), with creative support from Takaya Kimura (1 assists), A. Esaka (1 assists), K. Kawano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Gamba Osaka won 2 times, Fagiano Okayama won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:11 from Gamba Osaka's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.17 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.7%)
Predicted formations: Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1 / Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Gamba Osaka wins 2, draws 2, Fagiano Okayama wins 2
Stats
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
9 Corner Kicks 2
8 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
73% Ball Possession 27%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 4
6 Shots outsidebox 1
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
622 Total passes 224
535 Passes accurate 136
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gamba Osaka
Formation
Fagiano Okayama
M. Higashiguchi
M. Higashiguchi
T. Kishimoto
T. Kishimoto
G. Miura
🎯
G. Miura
S. Nakatani
S. Nakatani
R. Hatsuse
R. Hatsuse
S. Abe
S. Abe
T. Suzuki
T. Suzuki
R. Yamashita
R. Yamashita
I. Jebali
I. Jebali
Welton
Welton
D. Hummet
D. Hummet
L. Moser
L. Moser
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Tatsuta
D. Tagami
D. Tagami
H. Omori
H. Omori
H. Motoyama
H. Motoyama
E. Miyamoto
E. Miyamoto
K. Ogura
K. Ogura
N. Browne
N. Browne
T. Kimura
T. Kimura
A. Esaka
A. Esaka
K. Ichimi
K. Ichimi
Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
M. Higashiguchi
G
15
T. Kishimoto
⚽ 26'
D
5
G. Miura
🎯 26' 🟨 74'
D
4
S. Nakatani
D
21
R. Hatsuse
↓ 88'
D
13
S. Abe
M
16
T. Suzuki
↓ 60'
M
17
R. Yamashita
↓ 61'
M
11
I. Jebali
⚽ 65'
M
97
Welton
↓ 68'
M
23
D. Hummet
⚽ 5' ↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
18
R. Araki
G
10
S. Kurata
M
8
R. Meshino
↑ 68'
F
47
S. Nakano
↑ 88'
D
27
R. Mito
↑ 60'
M
42
H. Minamino
F
7
T. Usami
🎯 65' ↑ 61'
F
44
K. Okunuki
↑ 61'
M
19
G. Ikegaya
D
Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
L. Moser
G
48
Y. Tatsuta
D
18
D. Tagami
D
6
H. Omori
D
26
H. Motoyama
↓ 56'
M
41
E. Miyamoto
M
5
K. Ogura
↓ 85'
M
45
N. Browne
↓ 57' 🟨 42'
M
27
T. Kimura
↓ 67'
F
8
A. Esaka
⚽ 72'
F
22
K. Ichimi
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
52
T. Hamada
G
28
M. Matsumoto
↑ 56'
M
4
K. Abe
D
66
J. Nishikawa
↑ 85'
M
40
K. Kawano
↑ 67'
F
3
K. Fujii
M
51
K. Shirai
↑ 57'
D
9
Leo Gaucho
98
Werik Popo
🎯 72' ↑ 67'
F
Last matches: Gamba Osaka
06.06.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
4
2
W
30.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
10.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
06.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
5
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
1
1
D
22.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
2
L
11.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
1
L
04.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
0
W
21.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
18.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
14.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
08.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
28.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D
22.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
15.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
0
D
07.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
25.01.26
Fri
Gamba Osaka
Consadole Sapporo
4
1
W
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
06.06.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
2
0
W
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
H2H: Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
19.04.26
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
2
D
22.02.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
W
10.08.25
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
0
3
L
26.02.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
0
L
04.08.13
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
3
W
22.06.13
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
Last matches: Gamba Osaka
30.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
10.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
02.05.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
5
0
W
22.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
2
L
11.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
0
1
L
04.04.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
0
W
08.03.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
28.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
2
2
D
15.02.26
J1
Gamba Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
0
D
25.01.26
Fri
Gamba Osaka
Consadole Sapporo
4
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
Gamba Osaka
Shonan Bellmare
1
1
D
15.01.26
Fri
Gamba Osaka
Machida Zelvia
3
2
W
H2H at home: Gamba Osaka
19.04.26
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
2
D
10.08.25
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
0
3
L
22.06.13
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
06.06.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
H2H away: Fagiano Okayama
19.04.26
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
2
D
10.08.25
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
0
3
W
22.06.13
H2H
Gamba Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)