BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Gama
Match Timeline
Aparecidense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
Fellipe Ferreira
Aparecidense
49'
Willian Junior
Gama
57'
Ramon
Gama
67'
Jefferson
Aparecidense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.7%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gama Win 59.7%
Draw 6.9%
Aparecidense Win 33.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gama1.84
Aparecidense0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gama Gama
WWDLW
21 GF / 4 GA
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WLDWL
11 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.33
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
3
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gama Gama 9 matches
Aparecidense Aparecidense 9 matches
Gama Statistic Aparecidense
8 Wins 3
1 Draws 3
0 Losses 3
21 Goals For 11
4 Goals Against 10
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
3 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aparecidense. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aparecidense having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Gama arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 25 points compared to Aparecidense in 2 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Gama come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gama Analysis

Gama come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 25 points after 9 matches. The return of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 21:4, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Felipe Clemente (7 goals), Ramon (6 goals), Henrique Almeida (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Aparecidense Analysis

Aparecidense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 12 points after 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Carlos Baje (3 goals), Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Gama won 1 times, Aparecidense won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:4 from Gama's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
H2H summary: Gama wins 1, draws 2, Aparecidense wins 1
Last matches: Gama
04.07.26
Ser
Gama
Porto Velho
0
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
4
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
4
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Gama
Aparecidense
2
0
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
H2H: Gama vs Aparecidense
07.06.26
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
2
2
D
04.04.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
W
28.08.21
H2H
Aparecidense
Gama
2
1
L
12.06.21
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
0
0
D
Last matches: Gama
27.06.26
Ser
Gama
Mixto
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Gama
Primavera MG
4
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Gama
Brasiliense
3
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Gama
Luverdense
4
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Gama
Inhumas
2
0
W
H2H at home: Gama
07.06.26
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
2
2
D
12.06.21
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
0
0
D
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
1
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
3
2
W
10.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
1
3
L
04.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
H2H away: Aparecidense
07.06.26
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
2
2
D
12.06.21
H2H
Gama
Aparecidense
0
0
D

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Gama Home
10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)