IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Eamonn Deacy Park
Referee: D. Carolan
Galway United
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
S. Walsh
Galway United
🟨
25'
D. Hurley
Galway United
🟨
38'
C. Dummigan
Derry City
🔄
46'
J. Clarke ↔ L. Boyce
Derry City
48'
S. Walsh · Assist: D. Hurley
Galway United
🔄
56'
D. Markey ↔ J. McClean
Derry City
🔄
59'
D. Hurley ↔ A. Piesold
Galway United
🔄
82'
M. Wolfe ↔ W. Williams
Galway United
88'
M. Duffy
Derry City
🔄
89'
A. Bolger ↔ J. Thiam
Galway United
🟨
90+4'
G. Facchineri
Galway United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.6%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Galway United Win 42.6%
Draw 24.4%
Derry City Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Galway United1.26
Derry City1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Galway United Galway United
WWDLW
29 GF / 39 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
27 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
14
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
12
3.68
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Galway United Galway United 22 matches
Derry City Derry City 23 matches
Galway United Statistic Derry City
6 Wins 5
6 Draws 10
10 Losses 8
29 Goals For 27
39 Goals Against 27
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
14 BTTS Yes 14
17 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 8
3.68 Shots On Goal 4.52
12.16 Total Shots 12.9
4.74 Corners 6.05
39% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Derry City. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Galway United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Derry City in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Galway United Analysis

Galway United sit 7 with 21 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Twardek (6 goals), F. Pierrot (3 goals), Aaron Bolger (2 goals), with creative support from K. Twardek (5 assists), D. Hurley (4 assists), J. Keohane (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derry City Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Derry City have collected 22 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), Brandon Fleming (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Galway United won 4 times, Derry City won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Galway United's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.18 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.6%)
Predicted formations: Galway United 4-2-3-1 / Derry City 3-4-3
H2H summary: Galway United wins 4, draws 4, Derry City wins 3

Lineups

Galway United
Formation
Derry City
E. Watts
E. Watts
J. Keohane
J. Keohane
G. Facchineri
G. Facchineri
K. Brouder
K. Brouder
L. Devitt
L. Devitt
M. Wolfe
M. Wolfe
C. McCormack
C. McCormack
D. Hurley
🎯
D. Hurley
A. Bolger
A. Bolger
E. McCarthy
E. McCarthy
S. Walsh
⚽ 2
S. Walsh
E. Beach
E. Beach
C. Barr
C. Barr
C. Dummigan
C. Dummigan
P. McClean
P. McClean
K. Santos
K. Santos
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
J. Olayinka
J. Olayinka
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
M. Duffy
M. Duffy
J. Clarke
J. Clarke
D. Markey
D. Markey
Galway United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
E. Watts
4
J. Keohane
12
G. Facchineri
🟨 90+4'
5
K. Brouder
20
L. Devitt
14
M. Wolfe
↓ 82'
22
C. McCormack
10
D. Hurley
🎯 48' ↓ 59' 🟨 25'
8
A. Bolger
↓ 89'
24
E. McCarthy
7
S. Walsh
⚽ 24' ⚽ 48'
Substitutes
16
H. Cunha
15
W. Williams
↑ 82'
17
J. Thiam
↑ 89'
23
F. Pierrot
30
A. Kazeem
6
A. Piesold
↑ 59'
2
A. Parker
29
N. Fleuriau Chateau
28
J. Morahan
Derry City 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
13
E. Beach
22
C. Barr
23
C. Dummigan
🟨 38'
3
P. McClean
21
K. Santos
8
A. O'Reilly
28
J. Olayinka
19
B. Fleming
7
M. Duffy
⚽ 88'
15
J. Clarke
↓ 46'
10
D. Markey
↓ 56'
Substitutes
1
B. Maher
27
L. Boyce
↑ 46'
2
B. Cotter
31
C. Downey
20
C. Winchester
16
J. McClean
↑ 56'
32
T. Doherty
34
J. O'Donnell
33
O. O'Brien
Last matches: Galway United
11.07.26
Pre
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
3
2
W
03.07.26
Pre
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
3
L
26.06.26
Pre
Galway United
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
12.06.26
Pre
Galway United
Dundalk
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Shelbourne
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Bohemians
2
4
L
16.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Derry City
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
Galway United
Waterford
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
Galway United
Dundalk
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Galway United
Drogheda United
3
2
W
03.04.26
Pre
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Waterford
4
3
W
13.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Bohemians
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Dundalk
2
2
D
02.03.26
Pre
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
H2H: Galway United vs Derry City
19.06.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
04.05.26
H2H
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
22.08.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
2
L
13.06.25
H2H
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
3
L
07.03.25
H2H
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
30.08.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
0
W
07.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Galway United
2
0
L
03.05.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Derry City
Galway United
0
1
W
Last matches: Galway United
11.07.26
Pre
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
3
2
W
12.06.26
Pre
Galway United
Dundalk
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Bohemians
2
4
L
08.05.26
Pre
Galway United
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pre
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Waterford
4
3
W
06.03.26
Pre
Galway United
Dundalk
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pre
Galway United
Drogheda United
0
1
L
09.01.26
Fri
Galway United
Treaty United
2
0
W
H2H at home: Galway United
19.06.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
03.04.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
W
22.08.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
3
L
30.08.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
0
W
03.05.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
0
0
D
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
23.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Polessya
1
2
L
09.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
1
L
H2H away: Derry City
19.06.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
L
03.04.26
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
1
L
22.08.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
2
W
18.04.25
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
2
3
W
30.08.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
1
0
L
03.05.24
H2H
Galway United
Derry City
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1