BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Galvez
Match Timeline
Independência
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
47'
L. Capixaba
Galvez
49'
Biel
Independência
74'
L. Capixaba
Galvez

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 82%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
82%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Galvez Win 18%
Draw 36%
Independência Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Galvez0.5
Independência2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Galvez Galvez
WWDLW
1 GF / 6 GA
Independência Independência
WLDWL
3 GF / 1 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.5
3
Average Goals Conceded
0.5
1
BTTS Yes
0
2
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Galvez Galvez 2 matches
Independência Independência 2 matches
Galvez Statistic Independência
0 Wins 1
0 Draws 0
2 Losses 1
1 Goals For 3
6 Goals Against 1
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.5
1 BTTS Yes 0
2 Over 1.5 1
2 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Independência's more proactive style and Galvez's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independência carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 3 points while Galvez sit 5 on 1, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Independência having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independência.

Galvez Analysis

Placed 5 with 1 points from 2 outings, Galvez continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 1:6 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independência Analysis

Independência come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 3 points from 2 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, while the 3:1 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Biel (1 goals), Caique Gomes (1 goals), Pitel (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Galvez won 4 times, Independência won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:10 from Galvez's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (82%)
H2H summary: Galvez wins 4, draws 2, Independência wins 3
Last matches: Galvez
14.06.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
0
9
L
30.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
2
6
L
24.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Independência
1
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
4
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
0
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
1
2
L
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
H2H: Galvez vs Independência
24.05.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
3
1
L
19.04.26
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
1
W
06.03.26
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
2
W
29.03.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
3
L
25.02.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
17.04.24
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
1
D
20.04.23
H2H
Independência
Galvez
1
0
L
16.03.22
H2H
Independência
Galvez
0
4
W
05.03.20
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
20.01.19
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
0
W
Last matches: Galvez
30.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Porto Velho
2
6
L
16.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Humaitá
4
2
W
03.05.26
Ser
Galvez
Guaporé
3
3
D
04.04.26
Ser
Galvez
Araguaína
1
2
L
H2H at home: Galvez
19.04.26
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
1
W
29.03.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
3
L
25.02.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
17.04.24
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
1
D
05.03.20
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
20.01.19
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
0
W
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
31.05.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
0
1
L
21.05.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
1
W
04.05.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
H2H away: Independência
19.04.26
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
1
L
29.03.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
3
W
25.02.25
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
17.04.24
H2H
Galvez
Independência
1
1
D
05.03.20
H2H
Galvez
Independência
0
0
D
20.01.19
H2H
Galvez
Independência
2
0
L

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)