GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
17.08.2026 16:00
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: B. Bregadze
Gagra
Match Timeline
Spaeri
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
N. Kentchadze
Spaeri
🟨
38'
T. Askurava
Spaeri
🟨
40'
Augusto
Gagra
🟨
49'
N. Kentchadze
Spaeri
🟥
49'
N. Kentchadze
Spaeri
🔄
54'
G. Tsetskhladze ↔ L. Kachibaia
Spaeri
🟨
60'
M. Tsintsadze
Gagra
🔄
63'
A. Peikrishvili ↔ L. Kekelidze
Gagra
🔄
63'
Claudinei ↔ R. Adeyeye
Gagra
🔄
63'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ G. Goshteliani
Gagra
🔄
67'
B. Jibril ↔ N. Chagunava
Spaeri
🔄
75'
A. Andreychuk ↔ D. Mujiri
Gagra
78'
D. Mujiri · Assist: R. Adeyeye
Gagra
🔄
79'
V. Bliznichenko ↔ G. Khachidze
Gagra
82'
N. Chagunava · Assist: S. Gegiadze
Spaeri
🔄
87'
L. Kokhreidze ↔ R. Injgia
Spaeri

Gagra vs Spaeri Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.1%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 68.1%
Draw 12.1%
Spaeri Win 19.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.28
Spaeri1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
32 GF / 38 GA
Spaeri Spaeri
WLDWL
38 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
17
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
16
1
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 27 matches
Spaeri Spaeri 27 matches
Gagra Statistic Spaeri
7 Wins 7
11 Draws 10
9 Losses 10
32 Goals For 38
38 Goals Against 38
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
17 BTTS Yes 18
22 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 7
1 Shots On Goal 0
1 Total Shots 0
0.25 Corners 0
11.5% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Spaeri. Spaeri arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Spaeri having the stronger overall control.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra are currently 8 in the standings with 23 points from 20 matches. The record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 20:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Spaeri Analysis

Spaeri approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 22 points from 20 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 26:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 1 times, Spaeri won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:12 from Gagra's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-4-2 / Spaeri 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gagra wins 1, draws 2, Spaeri wins 3

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 7 6 32:21 11 46
W D L D W
2 26 12 8 6 43:34 9 44
D W W W W
3 25 11 9 5 40:27 13 42
W D D W L
4 24 12 4 8 33:27 6 40
W L W L L
5 25 11 4 10 33:27 6 37
D W W L D
6 26 9 9 8 41:31 10 36
W D D L D
7 26 9 5 12 36:49 -13 32
L L L D W
8
Gagra Home
26 6 10 10 24:36 -12 28
L D L W L
9 26 5 10 11 33:39 -6 25
L D D L L
10 26 2 10 14 19:43 -24 16
L D D W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2