GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
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David Petriashvili Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 59.3%
Draw 12.1%
Samgurali Win 28.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.29
Samgurali1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
25 GF / 33 GA
Samgurali Samgurali
WLDWL
41 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
14
BTTS Yes
18
10
Over 2.5
16
2
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 23 matches
Samgurali Samgurali 26 matches
Gagra Statistic Samgurali
6 Wins 10
8 Draws 6
9 Losses 10
25 Goals For 41
33 Goals Against 41
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
14 BTTS Yes 18
19 Over 1.5 21
10 Over 2.5 16
2 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 4
2 Shots On Goal 0
2 Total Shots 0
0.5 Corners 0
23% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Samgurali. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Samgurali having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Gagra Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Gagra have collected 20 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 17:23 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Andreychuk (4 goals), D. Mujiri (3 goals), I. Skrypnyk (3 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (5 assists), S. Zoidze (3 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Samgurali Analysis

Samgurali sit 6 with 24 points after 17 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 22:27 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Claudio Cebolinha (6 goals), Wellissol (6 goals), I. Janjgava (2 goals), with creative support from Claudio Cebolinha (2 assists), Vinicius Vianna (2 assists), L. Gegetchkori (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 2 times, Samgurali won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Gagra's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
H2H summary: Gagra wins 2, draws 5, Samgurali wins 8
Last matches: Gagra
18.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
28.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
2
0
W
20.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
11.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
06.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
27.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
21.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
2
D
07.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
1
1
D
03.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
2
1
W
11.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
1
D
02.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
17.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Bunyodkor
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Muras United
4
4
D
Last matches: Samgurali
18.06.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Tbilisi
3
5
L
13.06.26
Ero
Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
1
W
29.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dila
3
2
W
25.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Saburtalo
3
2
W
21.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Rustavi
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Spaeri
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Batumi
1
3
L
06.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Meshakhte
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Gagra
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
2
L
21.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
6
L
17.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dila
0
1
L
07.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Saburtalo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Rustavi
2
1
W
16.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Spaeri
1
4
L
12.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Batumi
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Meshakhte
0
0
D
02.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Gagra
1
0
W
19.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Ulytau
2
2
D
16.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Petrocub
1
1
D
H2H: Gagra vs Samgurali
02.05.26
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
2
0
L
02.03.26
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
02.11.25
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
1
1
D
24.08.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
2
0
W
07.05.25
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
0
2
W
16.03.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
10.11.24
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
4
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
1
3
L
27.07.24
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
0
0
D
14.05.24
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
2
0
L
30.03.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
02.10.23
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
2
2
D
05.08.23
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
22.07.23
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
3
0
L
26.04.23
H2H
Samgurali
Gagra
1
0
L
Last matches: Gagra
14.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
06.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
2
L
27.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
17.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
2
D
03.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
1
2
L
11.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
02.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gagra
Gareji
1
0
W
H2H at home: Gagra
02.03.26
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
2
0
W
16.03.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
01.09.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
1
3
L
30.03.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
05.08.23
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
Last matches: Samgurali
18.06.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Tbilisi
3
5
L
29.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dila
3
2
W
21.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Rustavi
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ero
Samgurali
Dinamo Batumi
1
3
L
21.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
6
L
07.04.26
Ero
Samgurali
Saburtalo
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Spaeri
1
4
L
08.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Meshakhte
0
0
D
02.03.26
Ero
Samgurali
Gagra
1
0
W
19.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Ulytau
2
2
D
16.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Petrocub
1
1
D
12.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Lokomotiv
2
0
W
02.02.26
Fri
Samgurali
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
2
L
H2H away: Samgurali
02.03.26
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
W
24.08.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
2
0
L
16.03.25
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
W
01.09.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
1
3
W
30.03.24
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D
05.08.23
H2H
Gagra
Samgurali
0
0
D

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 9 5 4 22:15 7 32
W W W L W
2 18 9 4 5 25:17 8 31
L D W L W
3 18 7 7 4 29:20 9 28
W L W L D
4 18 7 6 5 27:28 -1 27
W W L W D
5 18 7 5 6 30:19 11 26
L L L W W
6 18 7 3 8 25:32 -7 24
L W W W L
7 18 7 2 9 18:19 -1 23
W L L L D
8 18 5 6 7 25:25 0 21
L D L W D
9
Gagra Home
18 5 6 7 18:24 -6 21
D W W W L
10 18 1 8 9 12:32 -20 11
D L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2