GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: J. Khorava
Gagra
Match Timeline
Rustavi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
49'
Wanderson
Gagra
🔄
59'
S. Kessi ↔ P. Osei
Rustavi
🔄
66'
P. Borges ↔ G. Pipia
Gagra
🔄
66'
D. Mujiri ↔ A. Andreychuk
Gagra
72'
N. Chikovani
Rustavi
🔄
81'
D. Ubilava ↔ K. Ceijas
Rustavi
🔄
81'
Jean ↔ N. Kutateladze
Rustavi
🔄
83'
Z. Tchavtchanidze ↔ G. Darsania
Gagra
🔄
83'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ A. Peikrishvili
Gagra
🔄
90'
Jackson Kenio ↔ B. Jibril
Rustavi
🔄
90'
A. Gujabidze ↔ N. Japaridze
Rustavi

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 14.3%
Draw 7.1%
Rustavi Win 78.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.06
Rustavi1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
17 GF / 28 GA
Rustavi Rustavi
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
10
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 17 matches
Rustavi Rustavi 19 matches
Gagra Statistic Rustavi
3 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
8 Losses 6
17 Goals For 24
28 Goals Against 22
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 11
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rustavi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rustavi. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rustavi having the stronger overall control. Rustavi carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 19 points while Gagra sit 9 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Gagra have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Gagra Analysis

With 10 points from 12 games and a place of 9, Gagra still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:19 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Andreychuk (2 goals), D. Mujiri (2 goals), I. Skrypnyk (2 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (4 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), S. Zoidze (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rustavi Analysis

Rustavi arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 19 points after 12 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jean (4 goals), I. Iakobidze (3 goals), A. Gujabidze (2 goals), with creative support from P. Osei (3 assists), S. Kessi (2 assists), K. Ceijas (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 6 times, Rustavi won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:11 from Gagra's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
H2H summary: Gagra wins 6, draws 3, Rustavi wins 4

Lineups

Gagra
Formation
Rustavi
O. Vorobey
O. Vorobey
Z. Tchavtchanidze
Z. Tchavtchanidze
Augusto
Augusto
V. Arsic
V. Arsic
Claudinei
Claudinei
M. Tsintsadze
M. Tsintsadze
I. Skrypnyk
I. Skrypnyk
Wanderson
Wanderson
S. Zoidze
S. Zoidze
P. Borges
P. Borges
D. Mujiri
D. Mujiri
J. Roland
J. Roland
M. Kapanadze
M. Kapanadze
I. Iakobidze
I. Iakobidze
V. Patsatsia
V. Patsatsia
N. Chikovani
N. Chikovani
Y. Nakano
Y. Nakano
A. Gujabidze
A. Gujabidze
D. Ubilava
D. Ubilava
S. Kessi
S. Kessi
Jackson Kenio
Jackson Kenio
Jean
Jean
Gagra 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
O. Vorobey
14
Z. Tchavtchanidze
↓ 83'
2
Augusto
4
V. Arsic
40
Claudinei
6
M. Tsintsadze
8
I. Skrypnyk
↓ 83'
25
Wanderson
⚽ 49'
11
S. Zoidze
7
P. Borges
↓ 66'
9
D. Mujiri
↓ 66'
Substitutes
12
G. Barbakadze
3
O. Chochia
13
L. Gobejishvili
17
G. Pipia
↑ 66'
20
G. Darsania
↑ 83'
21
A. Peikrishvili
↑ 83'
22
G. Sadghobelashvili
23
A. Andreychuk
↑ 66'
29
R. Adeyeye
Rustavi 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
35
J. Roland
27
M. Kapanadze
24
I. Iakobidze
3
V. Patsatsia
19
N. Chikovani
⚽ 72'
22
Y. Nakano
13
A. Gujabidze
↓ 90'
40
D. Ubilava
↓ 81'
11
S. Kessi
↓ 59'
7
Jackson Kenio
↓ 90'
9
Jean
↓ 81'
Substitutes
1
S. Kardava
4
David Oliveira
5
K. Ceijas
↑ 81'
6
M. Pami
10
P. Osei
↑ 59'
14
N. Kutateladze
↑ 81'
17
B. Jibril
↑ 90'
18
N. Japaridze
↑ 90'
23
A. Kutateladze
Last matches: Gagra
18.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
28.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
2
0
W
20.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
0
1
L
11.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
06.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
2
L
27.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
21.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
2
D
07.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
1
1
D
03.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Rustavi
2
1
W
11.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
1
D
02.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
17.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Bunyodkor
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Muras United
4
4
D
09.02.26
Fri
Gagra
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
Last matches: Rustavi
17.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Saburtalo
2
1
W
13.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
1
0
W
29.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
0
1
L
21.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
0
W
11.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
3
L
05.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
1
D
01.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Saburtalo
2
1
W
22.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
2
1
W
07.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
3
0
W
03.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
L
11.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
0
0
D
07.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
0
W
17.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
12.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Oleksandria
0
1
L
H2H: Gagra vs Rustavi
16.05.26
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
15.03.26
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
2
W
01.11.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
2
0
W
10.09.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
1
W
24.05.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
3
1
W
02.04.21
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
26.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
0
D
20.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
2
L
24.08.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
0
D
20.07.20
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
0
3
W
20.10.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
2
0
L
11.08.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
2
L
19.05.17
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
0
L
31.03.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
0
W
30.04.16
H2H
Rustavi
Gagra
1
1
D
Last matches: Gagra
14.06.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
2
1
W
24.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dila
2
0
W
06.05.26
Ero
Gagra
Dinamo Batumi
1
2
L
27.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Meshakhte
1
1
D
17.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Torpedo Kutaisi
2
2
D
03.04.26
Ero
Gagra
Saburtalo
1
2
L
11.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Spaeri
0
3
L
02.03.26
Ero
Gagra
Samgurali
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gagra
Gareji
1
0
W
H2H at home: Gagra
16.05.26
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
01.11.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
2
0
W
24.05.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
3
1
W
26.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
0
D
20.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
2
L
11.08.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
2
L
31.03.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
0
W
Last matches: Rustavi
17.06.26
Ero
Rustavi
Saburtalo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
0
1
L
05.05.26
Ero
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
1
D
22.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Meshakhte
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Spaeri
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dila
2
1
W
03.04.26
Ero
Rustavi
Samgurali
1
2
L
11.03.26
Ero
Rustavi
Dinamo Tbilisi
0
0
D
12.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Oleksandria
0
1
L
10.02.26
Fri
Rustavi
Sogdiana
3
1
W
H2H away: Rustavi
16.05.26
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
1
D
01.11.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
2
0
L
24.05.21
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
3
1
L
26.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
0
D
20.10.20
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
0
2
W
11.08.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
2
W
31.03.17
H2H
Gagra
Rustavi
1
0
L

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 9 5 4 22:15 7 32
W W W L W
2 18 9 4 5 25:17 8 31
L D W L W
3 18 7 7 4 29:20 9 28
W L W L D
4 18 7 6 5 27:28 -1 27
W W L W D
5 18 7 5 6 30:19 11 26
L L L W W
6 18 7 3 8 25:32 -7 24
L W W W L
7 18 7 2 9 18:19 -1 23
W L L L D
8 18 5 6 7 25:25 0 21
L D L W D
9
Gagra Home
18 5 6 7 18:24 -6 21
D W W W L
10 18 1 8 9 12:32 -20 11
D L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2