GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
16.05.2026 13:00
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: J. Khorava
Gagra
Match Timeline
Rustavi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
49'
Wanderson
Gagra
🔄
59'
S. Kessi ↔ P. Osei
Rustavi
🔄
66'
P. Borges ↔ G. Pipia
Gagra
🔄
66'
D. Mujiri ↔ A. Andreychuk
Gagra
72'
N. Chikovani
Rustavi
🔄
81'
D. Ubilava ↔ K. Ceijas
Rustavi
🔄
81'
Jean ↔ N. Kutateladze
Rustavi
🔄
83'
Z. Tchavtchanidze ↔ G. Darsania
Gagra
🔄
83'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ A. Peikrishvili
Gagra
🔄
90'
Jackson Kenio ↔ B. Jibril
Rustavi
🔄
90'
A. Gujabidze ↔ N. Japaridze
Rustavi

Gagra vs Rustavi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 14.3%
Draw 7.1%
Rustavi Win 78.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.06
Rustavi1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
17 GF / 28 GA
Rustavi Rustavi
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
10
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 17 matches
Rustavi Rustavi 19 matches
Gagra Statistic Rustavi
3 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
8 Losses 6
17 Goals For 24
28 Goals Against 22
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 11
2 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Rustavi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rustavi. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rustavi having the stronger overall control. Rustavi carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 19 points while Gagra sit 9 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Gagra have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Gagra Analysis

With 10 points from 12 games and a place of 9, Gagra still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:19 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Andreychuk (2 goals), D. Mujiri (2 goals), I. Skrypnyk (2 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (4 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), S. Zoidze (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rustavi Analysis

Rustavi arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 19 points after 12 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 15:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jean (4 goals), I. Iakobidze (3 goals), A. Gujabidze (2 goals), with creative support from P. Osei (3 assists), S. Kessi (2 assists), K. Ceijas (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 6 times, Rustavi won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from Gagra's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.08 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-4-2 / Rustavi 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gagra wins 6, draws 2, Rustavi wins 5

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 7 6 32:21 11 46
W D L D W
2 26 12 8 6 43:34 9 44
D W W W W
3 25 11 9 5 40:27 13 42
W D D W L
4 24 12 4 8 33:27 6 40
W L W L L
5 25 11 4 10 33:27 6 37
D W W L D
6 26 9 9 8 41:31 10 36
W D D L D
7 26 9 5 12 36:49 -13 32
L L L D W
8
Gagra Home
26 6 10 10 24:36 -12 28
L D L W L
9 26 5 10 11 33:39 -6 25
L D D L L
10 26 2 10 14 19:43 -24 16
L D D W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2