GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
19.09.2026 14:00
David Petriashvili Stadium

Gagra vs Meshakhte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 69.2%
Draw 5.6%
Meshakhte Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.38
Meshakhte1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
36 GF / 44 GA
Meshakhte Meshakhte
WLDWL
24 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.76
19
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
14
1.5
Shots on Goal
1.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 32 matches
Meshakhte Meshakhte 29 matches
Gagra Statistic Meshakhte
8 Wins 3
13 Draws 10
11 Losses 16
36 Goals For 24
44 Goals Against 51
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.76
19 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 10
1.5 Shots On Goal 1.43
2.83 Total Shots 3.14
1.5 Corners 1.71
16.7% Ball Possession 26.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Meshakhte. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gagra expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Meshakhte in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Meshakhte having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gagra Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Gagra have collected 28 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 24:32 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Meshakhte Analysis

Meshakhte sit 10 with 16 points after 25 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 19:42 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 9 times, Meshakhte won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:12 from Gagra's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-1-4-1 / Meshakhte 5-4-1
H2H summary: Gagra wins 9, draws 3, Meshakhte wins 3

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 12 8 6 43:34 9 44
D W W W W
2 25 12 7 6 31:21 10 43
D L D W W
3 24 12 4 8 33:27 6 40
W L W L L
4 24 10 9 5 36:27 9 39
D D W L W
5 25 11 4 10 33:27 6 37
D W W L D
6 25 8 9 8 38:29 9 33
D D L D W
7 25 9 5 11 34:46 -12 32
L L D W L
8
Gagra Home
25 6 10 9 24:32 -8 28
D L W L D
9 26 5 10 11 33:39 -6 25
L D D L L
10 25 2 10 13 19:42 -23 16
D D W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2