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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
17.10.2026 15:00
David Petriashvili Stadium

Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 33.9%
Draw 11.4%
Dinamo Batumi Win 54.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.23
Dinamo Batumi1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
37 GF / 52 GA
Dinamo Batumi Dinamo Batumi
WLDWL
51 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
20
BTTS Yes
18
16
Over 2.5
22
3.79
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 35 matches
Dinamo Batumi Dinamo Batumi 35 matches
Gagra Statistic Dinamo Batumi
8 Wins 14
14 Draws 9
13 Losses 12
37 Goals For 51
52 Goals Against 52
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
20 BTTS Yes 18
29 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 22
6 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 10
3.79 Shots On Goal 3.86
3.75 Total Shots 4.71
4.46 Corners 5.36
45.1% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Dinamo Batumi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dinamo Batumi. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Dinamo Batumi look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Dinamo Batumi carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 47 points while Gagra sit 8 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gagra expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Dinamo Batumi in 4-1-2-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dinamo Batumi having the stronger overall control.

Gagra Analysis

From their first 27 matches, Gagra have collected 29 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 25:37 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dinamo Batumi Analysis

Dinamo Batumi approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 47 points after 27 outings. They have recorded 13 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, with a 46:36 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 3 times, Dinamo Batumi won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:29 from Gagra's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-4-2 / Dinamo Batumi 4-1-2-3
H2H summary: Gagra wins 3, draws 4, Dinamo Batumi wins 8

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 47:36 11 50
W W D W W
2 28 14 7 7 35:24 11 49
W L W D L
3 28 15 4 9 40:31 9 49
W L W W W
4 28 13 9 6 45:31 14 48
L W W W D
5 28 12 4 12 39:33 6 40
L W L D W
6 28 9 10 9 46:37 9 37
D L W D D
7 28 10 5 13 41:52 -11 35
W L L L L
8
Gagra Home
28 6 11 11 25:40 -15 29
L D L D L
9 28 5 11 12 37:46 -9 26
D L L D D
10 28 2 11 15 21:46 -25 17
L D L D D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2