GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Mewa Arena
Referee: Florian Exner, Germany
FSV Mainz 05
Match Timeline
Union Berlin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Anthony Caci
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
16'
D. da Costa ↔ K. Potulski
FSV Mainz 05
38'
A. Ilic · Assist: A. Kemlein
Union Berlin
48'
S. Becker · Assist: P. Nebel
FSV Mainz 05
VAR
59'
Phillip Tietz
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
59'
L. Burcu ↔ Jeong Woo-Yeong
Union Berlin
🔄
60'
I. Ansah ↔ A. Schafer
Union Berlin
🔄
60'
T. Rothe ↔ D. Kohn
Union Berlin
🔄
70'
P. Nebel ↔ Lee Jae-Sung
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
70'
A. Caci ↔ N. Veratschnig
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
75'
Jae-sung Lee
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
80'
Derrick Köhn
Union Berlin
🔄
81'
S. Becker ↔ A. Sieb
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
81'
P. Tietz ↔ N. Weiper
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
81'
C. Trimmel ↔ J. Juranovic
Union Berlin
🔄
88'
O. Burke ↔ T. Skarke
Union Berlin
88'
O. Burke · Assist: A. Ilic
Union Berlin
90'
J. Juranovic · Assist: T. Skarke
Union Berlin

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87%
-
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
FSV Mainz 05 Win 87%
Draw 0%
Union Berlin Win 13%
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 051.49
Union Berlin1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WWDLW
57 GF / 60 GA
Union Berlin Union Berlin
WLDWL
37 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.16
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
24
BTTS Yes
20
21
Over 2.5
19
4.02
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 44 matches
Union Berlin Union Berlin 32 matches
FSV Mainz 05 Statistic Union Berlin
16 Wins 8
12 Draws 9
16 Losses 15
57 Goals For 37
60 Goals Against 57
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
24 BTTS Yes 20
34 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 19
12 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 6
13 Failed To Score 8
4.02 Shots On Goal 3.59
12.36 Total Shots 12.22
5.2 Corners 4.94
45% Ball Possession 39.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Union Berlin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Union Berlin arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 are currently 10 in the standings with 37 points from 32 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 41:50 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by N. Amiri (11 goals), Paul Nebel (5 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), Sheraldo Becker (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union Berlin Analysis

Union Berlin sit 13 with 33 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 37:57 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Doekhi (5 goals), I. Ansah (5 goals), O. Burke (5 goals), with creative support from A. Ilic (8 assists), Christopher Trimmel (3 assists), I. Ansah (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 1 times, Union Berlin won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:28 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2 / Union Berlin 3-5-2
Missing players: FSV Mainz 05 5, Union Berlin 4
H2H summary: FSV Mainz 05 wins 1, draws 5, Union Berlin wins 8
Stats
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin Union Berlin
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 8
11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Goal 9
7 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 12
4 Shots outsidebox 4
6 Goalkeeper Saves 2
462 Total passes 411
388 Passes accurate 337
1.57 expected_goals 2.68
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05
Formation
Union Berlin
R. Zentner
R. Zentner
D. da Costa
D. da Costa
S. Posch
S. Posch
D. Kohr
D. Kohr
A. Caci
A. Caci
P. Nebel
🎯
P. Nebel
K. Sano
K. Sano
N. Amiri
N. Amiri
P. Mwene
P. Mwene
P. Tietz
P. Tietz
S. Becker
S. Becker
C. Klaus
C. Klaus
C. Trimmel
C. Trimmel
D. Doekhi
D. Doekhi
D. Leite
D. Leite
T. Rothe
T. Rothe
R. Khedira
R. Khedira
A. Kemlein
🎯
A. Kemlein
O. Burke
O. Burke
I. Ansah
I. Ansah
L. Burcu
L. Burcu
A. Ilic
🎯
A. Ilic
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Starting XI
27
R. Zentner
G
21
D. da Costa
↓ 16'
D
4
S. Posch
D
31
D. Kohr
D
19
A. Caci
↓ 70' 🟨 7'
M
8
P. Nebel
🎯 48' ↓ 70'
M
6
K. Sano
M
10
N. Amiri
M
2
P. Mwene
M
20
P. Tietz
↓ 81'
F
23
S. Becker
⚽ 48' ↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
33
D. Batz
G
30
S. Widmer
D
15
L. Maloney
M
11
A. Sieb
↑ 81'
F
24
S. Kawasaki
M
7
Lee Jae-Sung
↑ 70' 🟨 75'
M
22
N. Veratschnig
↑ 70'
D
44
N. Weiper
↑ 81'
F
48
K. Potulski
↑ 16'
D
Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
C. Klaus
G
28
C. Trimmel
↓ 81'
D
5
D. Doekhi
D
4
D. Leite
D
15
T. Rothe
↓ 60'
D
8
R. Khedira
M
6
A. Kemlein
🎯 38'
M
7
O. Burke
⚽ 88' ↓ 88'
M
10
I. Ansah
↓ 60'
M
9
L. Burcu
↓ 59'
M
23
A. Ilic
⚽ 38' 🎯 88'
F
Substitutes
48
T. Wisbereit
G
33
A. Kral
M
18
J. Juranovic
⚽ 90' ↑ 81'
D
21
T. Skarke
🎯 90' ↑ 88'
M
13
A. Schafer
↑ 60'
M
34
S. Nsoki
D
39
D. Kohn
↑ 60' 🟨 80'
D
11
Jeong Woo-Yeong
↑ 59'
M
14
L. Querfeld
D
Last matches: FSV Mainz 05
16.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
2
0
W
03.05.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
2
1
W
25.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
3
4
L
19.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
1
D
16.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
0
4
L
12.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0
1
L
09.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
2
0
W
04.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
2
1
W
22.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
2
0
W
15.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
2
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
0
0
D
07.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
28.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
20.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
13.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
0
4
L
07.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
2
0
W
31.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
2
1
W
24.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
3
1
W
17.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Köln
1
2
L
Last matches: Union Berlin
16.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
4
0
W
02.05.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
2
2
D
24.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
1
3
L
18.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
1
2
L
11.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Heidenheim
1
3
L
05.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli
1
1
D
21.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayern München
0
4
L
15.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
08.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
1
4
L
28.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
21.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
2
3
L
06.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
1
D
31.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
1
3
L
24.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
0
3
L
18.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart
1
1
D
15.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
10.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2
2
D
05.01.26
Fri
Union Berlin
Erzgebirge Aue
2
1
W
20.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
1
0
W
H2H: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
10.05.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
3
L
10.01.26
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2
2
D
19.01.25
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2
1
L
24.08.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
07.02.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
20.08.23
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
4
1
L
04.02.23
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
2
1
L
14.08.22
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
0
0
D
26.02.22
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
3
1
L
03.10.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
2
L
06.02.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
0
W
02.10.20
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
4
0
L
27.05.20
H2H
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
1
1
D
09.11.19
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
2
3
L
Last matches: FSV Mainz 05
25.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
3
4
L
12.04.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0
1
L
09.04.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
2
0
W
22.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
1
W
19.03.26
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Sigma Olomouc
2
0
W
07.03.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
2
2
D
20.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
2
0
W
24.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
3
1
W
13.01.26
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
2
1
W
21.12.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli
0
0
D
18.12.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Samsunspor
2
0
W
05.12.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
21.11.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
1
1
D
06.11.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Fiorentina
2
1
W
01.11.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
1
1
D
23.10.25
UEF
FSV Mainz 05
Zrinjski
1
0
W
18.10.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
3
4
L
27.09.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
13.09.25
Bun
FSV Mainz 05
RB Leipzig
0
1
L
H2H at home: FSV Mainz 05
10.05.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
3
L
24.08.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
07.02.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
14.08.22
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
0
0
D
03.10.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
2
L
06.02.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
0
W
09.11.19
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
2
3
L
Last matches: Union Berlin
24.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
1
3
L
11.04.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Heidenheim
1
3
L
21.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayern München
0
4
L
15.03.26
Bun
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
28.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
1
L
14.02.26
Bun
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
2
3
L
31.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
1
3
L
18.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart
1
1
D
15.01.26
Bun
Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
1
1
D
05.01.26
Fri
Union Berlin
Erzgebirge Aue
2
1
W
20.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
1
0
W
06.12.25
Bun
Union Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg
1
3
L
23.11.25
Bun
Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli
1
0
W
24.10.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
0
1
L
04.10.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
0
2
L
21.09.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
3
W
31.08.25
Bun
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
0
3
L
H2H away: Union Berlin
10.05.26
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
3
W
24.08.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
07.02.24
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
1
D
14.08.22
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
0
0
D
03.10.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
2
W
06.02.21
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
1
0
L
09.11.19
H2H
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
2
3
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D

Missing Players

FSV Mainz 05 5 missing
-
M. Dal
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Hollerbach
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Silas
Missing Fixture Broken shinbone
OUT
-
Lee Jae-Sung
Questionable Toe Injury
OUT
-
M. Leitsch
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
Union Berlin 4 missing
-
M. Raab
Missing Fixture Hand Injury
OUT
-
R. Skov
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Preu
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
F. Ronnow
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT