GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
29.08.2026 13:30
Mewa Arena
Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany
FSV Mainz 05
Match Timeline
SC Paderborn 07
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Santiago Castañeda
SC Paderborn 07
🔄
67'
S. Marino ↔ S. Tigges
SC Paderborn 07
🔄
68'
S. Becker ↔ O. Ruoppi
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
68'
Lee Jae-Sung ↔ R. Konigsdorffer
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
72'
Mattes Hansen
SC Paderborn 07
🔄
73'
A. Caci ↔ S. Widmer
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
75'
M. Hansen ↔ J. Sticker
SC Paderborn 07
🔄
75'
L. Ulrich ↔ T. Baack
SC Paderborn 07
🔄
80'
D. Kohr ↔ K. Potulski
FSV Mainz 05
🟨
90+1'
Phillipp Mwene
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
90+2'
M. Pieringer ↔ C. Lippmann
SC Paderborn 07

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.3%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.65
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.3%
1.67
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.65
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
FSV Mainz 05 Win 64.3%
Draw 3.8%
SC Paderborn 07 Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FSV Mainz 053.35
SC Paderborn 071.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WWDLW
38 GF / 5 GA
SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07
WLDWL
10 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
4.75
Average Goals Scored
2.5
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
3
BTTS Yes
3
7
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 8 matches
SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 4 matches
FSV Mainz 05 Statistic SC Paderborn 07
7 Wins 3
1 Draws 1
0 Losses 0
38 Goals For 10
5 Goals Against 5
4.75 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
3 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 4
7 Over 2.5 3
5 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 3 times, SC Paderborn 07 won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:3 from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2 / SC Paderborn 07 3-4-3
Missing players: FSV Mainz 05 4, SC Paderborn 07 4
H2H summary: FSV Mainz 05 wins 3, draws 1, SC Paderborn 07 wins 0

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 2 2 0 0 7:1 6 6
W W
2 2 2 0 0 5:1 4 6
W W
3 2 2 0 0 5:2 3 6
W W
4 2 2 0 0 7:5 2 6
W W
5 2 1 1 0 5:0 5 4
W D
6 2 1 1 0 5:1 4 4
D W
7 3 1 1 1 3:4 -1 4
W D L
8 2 1 0 1 6:3 3 3
W L
9 2 1 0 1 4:3 1 3
L W
10 2 1 0 1 5:6 -1 3
W L
11 2 1 0 1 4:5 -1 3
W L
12 2 1 0 1 4:6 -2 3
L W
13 2 0 1 1 0:1 -1 1
L D
14 2 0 1 1 4:7 -3 1
L D
15 3 0 1 2 4:10 -6 1
L L D
16 2 0 0 2 4:6 -2 0
L L
17 2 0 0 2 3:7 -4 0
L L
18 2 0 0 2 0:7 -7 0
L L
Champions League league stage
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Qualifying
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Relegation