LATVIA VIRSLIGA
21.06.2026 13:00
Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs
Referee: V. Mordatenko
FS Jelgava
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
34'
M. Semesko · Assist: M. Pudil
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
M. Susts ↔ M. Stals
Tukums
🔄
46'
A. Enyou ↔ H. Joksts
Tukums
🟥
54'
K. Volkovs
Tukums
58'
M. Pudil · Assist: E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
59'
B. Samoilovs ↔ R. Reingolcs
Tukums
🔄
59'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ Leoni
Tukums
65'
A. Petersons · Assist: E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
67'
E. Smaukstelis ↔ D. Holoubek
FS Jelgava
🔄
68'
G. Patika ↔ M. Hasek
FS Jelgava
70'
R. Melkis
FS Jelgava
🔄
78'
A. Petersons ↔ I. Smirnovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
78'
G. Zaleiko ↔ A. Deklavs
FS Jelgava
🟨
83'
R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
84'
R. Melkis ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums
🔄
86'
R. Melkis ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
87'
E. Oloko · Assist: K. Klavins
Tukums

FS Jelgava vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.7%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 49.2%
Draw 24.3%
Tukums Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.19
Tukums1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
18 GF / 41 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
37 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
10
BTTS Yes
19
8
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 23 matches
Tukums Tukums 21 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic Tukums
4 Wins 3
7 Draws 10
12 Losses 8
18 Goals For 37
41 Goals Against 38
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
10 BTTS Yes 19
16 Over 1.5 21
8 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 1
11 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tukums. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Tukums arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FS Jelgava Analysis

From their first 17 matches, FS Jelgava have collected 16 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 13:31 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Hasek (5 goals), A. Kangars (3 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (3 assists), J. Novikovs (2 assists), L. Prior (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 8 with 14 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 30:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Oloko (15 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 5 times, Tukums won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:22 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.7%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 3-4-2-1 / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 5, draws 6, Tukums wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 30 10 8 12 35:35 0 38
L D L D W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L