LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.7%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 49.2%
Draw 24.3%
Tukums Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.19
Tukums1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
18 GF / 41 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
37 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
10
BTTS Yes
19
8
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 23 matches
Tukums Tukums 21 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic Tukums
4 Wins 3
7 Draws 10
12 Losses 8
18 Goals For 37
41 Goals Against 38
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
10 BTTS Yes 19
16 Over 1.5 21
8 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 1
11 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tukums. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Tukums arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FS Jelgava Analysis

From their first 17 matches, FS Jelgava have collected 16 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 13:31 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Hasek (5 goals), A. Kangars (3 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (3 assists), J. Novikovs (2 assists), L. Prior (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 8 with 14 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 30:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Oloko (15 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 3 times, Tukums won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.7%)
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 3, draws 7, Tukums wins 4
Last matches: FS Jelgava
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
Last matches: Tukums
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H: FS Jelgava vs Tukums
01.05.26
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
L
08.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
09.11.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
23.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
1
1
D
17.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
23.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
15.09.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
3
3
D
26.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
0
D
07.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
1
L
17.03.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
3
L
11.11.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
26.08.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
0
W
10.06.23
H2H
Tukums
FS Jelgava
2
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
2
D
Last matches: FS Jelgava
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
H2H at home: FS Jelgava
08.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
23.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
1
1
D
23.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
26.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
0
D
17.03.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
3
L
26.08.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
0
W
29.04.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
2
D
Last matches: Tukums
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Tukums
Panevėžys
1
2
L
H2H away: Tukums
08.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
L
23.08.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
1
1
D
23.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
L
26.06.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
0
D
17.03.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
3
W
26.08.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
2
D

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2 18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga