LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs
Referee: V. Spasjonnikovs
FS Jelgava
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
M. Ivulans · Assist: M. Kalnins
Ogre United
41'
D. Holoubek · Assist: D. Holoubek
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
L. Prior ↔ G. Kacanovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
M. Pudil ↔ A. Deklavs
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
D. Holoubek ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava
🔄
46'
K. Gulbis ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United
🟨
50'
T. Mickevics
Ogre United
🟨
52'
J. Novikovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
61'
G. Patika ↔ A. Janovskis
FS Jelgava
🔄
77'
M. Ivulans ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
81'
M. Semesko
Ogre United
🔄
84'
M. Kalnins ↔ H. Silagailis
Ogre United
🟨
89'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🔄
90+2'
E. Evelons ↔ D. Sedols
Ogre United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 73.2%
Draw 17.2%
Ogre United Win 9.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.44
Ogre United1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
18 GF / 39 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
15 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
0.79
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
2.37
10
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 22 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 19 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic Ogre United
4 Wins 0
7 Draws 4
11 Losses 15
18 Goals For 15
39 Goals Against 45
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 2.37
10 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 0
10 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ogre United. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. FS Jelgava arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 15 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava sit 7 with 15 points after 16 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 12:30 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Hasek (5 goals), A. Kangars (2 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (2 assists), J. Novikovs (2 assists), L. Prior (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United sit 10 with 4 points after 16 league matches. The record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 13:38 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Cudars (5 goals), K. Johnson (2 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), with creative support from K. Cudars (1 assists), M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 1 times, Ogre United won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.4%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 5-4-1 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 1, draws 0, Ogre United wins 1

Lineups

FS Jelgava
Formation
Ogre United
A. Dvorak
A. Dvorak
A. Petersons
A. Petersons
J. Novikovs
J. Novikovs
A. Kangars
A. Kangars
M. Semesko
M. Semesko
L. Prior
L. Prior
R. Becers
R. Becers
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
D. Holoubek
🎯
D. Holoubek
M. Pudil
M. Pudil
G. Patika
G. Patika
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
M. Lormanis
M. Lormanis
K. Gulbis
K. Gulbis
T. Marusiy
T. Marusiy
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
M. Kalnins
🎯
M. Kalnins
K. Hayashi
K. Hayashi
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
M. Ivulans
M. Ivulans
K. Cudars
K. Cudars
E. Evelons
E. Evelons
FS Jelgava 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Dvorak
19
A. Petersons
13
J. Novikovs
🟨 52'
4
A. Kangars
3
M. Semesko
⚽ 81'
25
L. Prior
↓ 46'
9
R. Becers
8
R. Melkis
10
D. Holoubek
⚽ 41' 🎯 41' ↓ 46'
22
M. Pudil
↓ 46'
20
G. Patika
↓ 61'
Substitutes
30
S. Belanik
16
T. Leitis
11
M. Hasek
7
A. Janovskis
↑ 61'
21
G. Kacanovs
↑ 46'
5
I. Smirnovs
24
F. Hasek
28
A. Deklavs
↑ 46'
18
E. Smaukstelis
↑ 46'
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
37
M. Lormanis
13
K. Gulbis
↓ 46'
3
T. Marusiy
6
D. Vejkrigers
10
M. Kalnins
🎯 26' ↓ 84'
5
K. Hayashi
8
T. Mickevics
🟨 50'
21
M. Ivulans
⚽ 26' ↓ 77'
19
K. Cudars
🟨 89'
18
E. Evelons
↓ 90+2'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
14
R. Aditajs
28
D. Sedols
↑ 90+2'
7
K. Kumakura
17
V. Mashchenko
↑ 77'
9
H. Silagailis
↑ 84'
11
M. Pacepko
23
E. Sprukts
47
K. Johnson
↑ 46'
Last matches: FS Jelgava
03.07.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
3
L
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
Last matches: Ogre United
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H: FS Jelgava vs Ogre United
17.06.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
27.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
29.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
H2H at home: FS Jelgava
17.06.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
Last matches: Ogre United
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H away: Ogre United
17.06.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2 22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga