LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 73.3%
Draw 16.7%
Grobiņa Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.27
Grobiņa1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
27 GF / 43 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
27 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
12
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 25 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 27 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic Grobiņa
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 10
12 Losses 11
27 Goals For 27
43 Goals Against 42
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
12 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 8
8 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Grobiņa. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. Grobiņa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava sit 7 with 19 points after 19 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 17:34 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Hasek (5 goals), A. Kangars (3 goals), M. Semesko (2 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (3 assists), D. Holoubek (2 assists), E. Smaukstelis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 16 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats with a 12:30 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Puzirevskis (5 goals), R. Baravykas (3 goals), A. Kholod (2 goals), with creative support from R. Baravykas (2 assists), M. Sidorovs (2 assists), O. Rascevskis (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 5 times, Grobiņa won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 5-4-1 / Grobiņa -
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 5, draws 3, Grobiņa wins 4
Last matches: FS Jelgava
25.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
5
1
W
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
25.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
1
0
W
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
16.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
09.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
L
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
14.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
2
L
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
H2H: FS Jelgava vs Grobiņa
11.05.26
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
21.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
29.08.25
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
3
2
L
22.06.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
29.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
1
0
W
06.03.25
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
23.08.24
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
2
3
W
16.06.24
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
4
2
L
28.04.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
1
W
04.09.22
H2H
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
01.05.22
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
4
0
W
Last matches: FS Jelgava
21.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
4
1
W
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
H2H at home: FS Jelgava
21.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
22.06.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
29.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
1
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
W
28.04.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
1
W
01.05.22
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
4
0
W
Last matches: Grobiņa
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
21.03.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
W
22.06.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
W
29.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
1
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
0
L
28.04.24
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
2
1
L
01.05.22
H2H
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
4
0
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 15 4 1 60:19 41 49
D W W W W
2 19 16 1 2 48:14 34 49
W L W W W
3 20 12 3 5 36:23 13 39
D W L D W
4 19 7 4 8 23:29 -6 25
L L W W D
5 20 6 6 8 21:25 -4 24
D W D D D
6 20 5 7 8 22:35 -13 22
W W L D D
7 20 6 3 11 20:32 -12 21
L L D L L
8 19 3 8 8 33:36 -3 17
L W D L L
9 20 3 8 9 12:30 -18 17
D L W L L
10 19 1 4 14 16:48 -32 7
L W L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga