LATVIA VIRSLIGA
26.05.2026 15:00
Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs
Referee: K. Ratnieks
FS Jelgava
Match Timeline
FK Liepaja
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
23'
E. Rodolphe ↔ A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
26'
T. Rataj
FS Jelgava
🔄
28'
V. Isajevs ↔ I. Korotkovs
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
A. Traore ↔ A. Haidara
FK Liepaja
🔄
51'
B. Straalman ↔ K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
51'
D. Patijcuks ↔ I. Patrikejevs
FK Liepaja
🟨
67'
A. Janovskis
FS Jelgava
🟨
70'
G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
🟨
71'
Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
73'
K. Leidsman · Assist: Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
🔄
74'
A. Janovskis ↔ M. Pudil
FS Jelgava
🟨
78'
M. Martins
FK Liepaja
🔄
81'
R. Becers ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🟨
90'
K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
90'
F. Hasek ↔ E. Smaukstelis
FS Jelgava

FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 86%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
86%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FS Jelgava Win 14%
Draw 34.9%
FK Liepaja Win 51.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FS Jelgava1.15
FK Liepaja1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WWDLW
15 GF / 36 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
34 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
7
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 19 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 22 matches
FS Jelgava Statistic FK Liepaja
4 Wins 9
4 Draws 4
11 Losses 9
15 Goals For 34
36 Goals Against 37
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
7 BTTS Yes 15
12 Over 1.5 18
8 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 1
10 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FK Liepaja. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava are currently 8 in the standings with 13 points from 13 matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 10:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Hasek (4 goals), A. Kangars (2 goals), G. Kacanovs (1 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (2 assists), J. Novikovs (2 assists), L. Prior (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

Placed 4 with 18 points from 13 outings, FK Liepaja continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, while the 16:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Gueye (3 goals), K. Leidsman (3 goals), D. Patijcuks (2 goals), with creative support from Fellipe Vieira (1 assists), A. Korobenko (1 assists), C. Amatkarijo (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FS Jelgava won 2 times, FK Liepaja won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:25 from FS Jelgava's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (86%)
Predicted formations: FS Jelgava 3-4-2-1 / FK Liepaja 4-4-2
H2H summary: FS Jelgava wins 2, draws 6, FK Liepaja wins 7

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2 27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L