NORWAY ELITESERIEN
13.09.2026 17:15
Fredrikstad Stadion
Referee: U. Aslam

Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55%
Odds 2.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55%
2.42
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.76
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.7%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Fredrikstad Win 55%
Draw 16.3%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 28.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fredrikstad1.39
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WWDLW
41 GF / 42 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
44 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
18
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
18
3.95
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 29 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 30 matches
Fredrikstad Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
13 Wins 13
6 Draws 7
10 Losses 10
41 Goals For 44
42 Goals Against 41
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
18 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 18
11 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 6
3.95 Shots On Goal 4.16
11.21 Total Shots 12.84
4 Corners 5
47.1% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sarpsborg 08 FF. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Fredrikstad come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fredrikstad expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control.

Fredrikstad Analysis

So far, Fredrikstad have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 23:30 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (3 goals), B. Thoresen (3 goals), D. Eid (2 goals), with creative support from H. Skogvold (2 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), D. Eid (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 23 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 20:23 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Daniel Karlsbakk (5 goals), Andreas Hansen (3 goals), Sondre Sörli (2 goals), with creative support from Claus Niyukuri (4 assists), Sondre Sörli (3 assists), Sander Christiansen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Fredrikstad won 3 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Fredrikstad's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Fredrikstad 3-4-3 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
Missing players: Fredrikstad 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF 2
H2H summary: Fredrikstad wins 3, draws 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 2 2 49:15 34 47
W W W W W
2 19 14 2 3 43:19 24 44
D W L W W
3 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
4 19 10 3 6 38:29 9 33
W W W L D
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 19 8 2 9 37:29 8 26
L D W W L
8 19 8 2 9 23:30 -7 26
L W W W W
9 19 6 6 7 22:25 -3 24
D D L L D
10 19 6 5 8 26:36 -10 23
L D L D W
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 19 5 5 9 16:24 -8 20
D D W L L
13 19 5 4 10 19:29 -10 19
W D L W L
14 19 5 4 10 20:33 -13 19
L L D W W
15 19 3 9 7 30:43 -13 18
W L D D L
16 19 3 4 12 20:41 -21 13
L W L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen