BRAZIL SERIE B
13.09.2026 21:30
Referee: M. de Lima
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
12'
Maílton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
20'
Vinicius Zanocelo
Ceara
🟨
20'
Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
Fortaleza EC
🔄
28'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
30'
Vitor Ferreira · Assist: Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🟨
35'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🔄
41'
Vinicius Zanocelo ↔ Vinícius
Ceara
🔄
61'
Nicolás Ferreira ↔ Rian Bonfim De Santana
Ceara
🔄
65'
Vitor Ferreira ↔ Chico da Costa
Fortaleza EC
🟨
68'
Rian Bonfim De Santana
Ceara
🔄
76'
Sanchez Costa ↔ Sávio António Alves
Ceara
🔄
76'
Julio Cesar Alves Goncalves ↔ Matheus Araujo
Ceara
🔄
76'
Saulo Mineiro ↔ Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
Ceara
🔄
80'
Pierre ↔ ronald falkoski
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Ryan Gustavo de Lima
Fortaleza EC
🔄
80'
Kaio Henrique ↔ Maurício Mucuri
Fortaleza EC
87'
Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira · Assist: Matheus Araujo
Ceara

Fortaleza EC vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds 1.81
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.33
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
1.81
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.33
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 72.3%
Draw 8.1%
Ceara Win 19.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.19
Ceara0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
30 GF / 22 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
28 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.04
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
10
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
10
4.19
Shots on Goal
4.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 27 matches
Ceara Ceara 27 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Ceara
13 Wins 8
8 Draws 7
6 Losses 12
30 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 35
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
10 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 20
9 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 3
13 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 10
4.19 Shots On Goal 4.19
14.15 Total Shots 13.74
5.48 Corners 5.81
47% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Fortaleza EC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 44 points compared to Ceara in 16 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ceara. Ceara arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ceara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ceara having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 44 points after 26 matches. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 29:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vitinho (5 goals), Maílton (3 goals), J. Miritello (3 goals), with creative support from Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Maílton (1 assists), João Ricardo (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara sit 16 with 31 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 27:33 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Lucas Lima (3 goals), Júlio (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Juan Alano (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 0 times, Ceara won 6 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 4-3-3 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 0, draws 9, Ceara wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15
Ceara Away
29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation