12.09.2026 23:00
Tim Hortons Field
Forge
Match Timeline
Atlético Ottawa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Manny Aparicio
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
39'
Kyle Bekker
Forge
60'
Kyle Bekker · Assist: Hoce Massunda
Forge
🟨
65'
Sergei Kozlovskiy
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
66'
Enmanuel Mbomio Angue
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
71'
Enmanuel Mbomio Angue ↔ Tim Arnaud
Atlético Ottawa
🟨
71'
Brian Wright
Forge
🔄
71'
Juan Castro ↔ Kamron Habibullah
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
72'
Brian Wright ↔ Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
Forge
🔄
72'
Hoce Massunda ↔ Nana Ampomah
Forge
🔄
79'
Aghilas Abdelmalek Sadek Sadek ↔ Tristan Borges
Forge
🔄
79'
Kyle Bekker ↔ Ben Paton
Forge
79'
M. Bourgeois · Assist: Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
Forge
🔄
81'
G. Antinoro ↔ Emiliano·García
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
81'
Diego Gutiérrez ↔ Ralph Khoury
Atlético Ottawa
🔄
81'
Antoine Batisse ↔ Manjrekar James
Forge
🟨
82'
Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
Forge
90+2'
M. Bourgeois · Assist: Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
Forge

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.4%
1.61
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.68
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Forge Win 62.4%
Draw 7.9%
Atlético Ottawa Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Forge1.56
Atlético Ottawa1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Forge Forge
WWDLW
31 GF / 19 GA
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WLDWL
34 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.48
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
16
2.45
Shots on Goal
1.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Forge Forge 22 matches
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 23 matches
Forge Statistic Atlético Ottawa
13 Wins 10
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 9
31 Goals For 34
19 Goals Against 41
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
10 BTTS Yes 15
12 Over 1.5 20
9 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 5
2.45 Shots On Goal 1.91
7.18 Total Shots 5.22
2.91 Corners 1.96
22.9% Ball Possession 30.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Forge's more proactive style and Atlético Ottawa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atlético Ottawa. Atlético Ottawa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Forge expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atlético Ottawa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlético Ottawa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Forge Analysis

With 41 points from 19 games and a place of 2, Forge still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 13 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 29:14 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 33 points after 20 outings. With 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 34:34, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Forge won 5 times, Atlético Ottawa won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Forge's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Forge 4-3-3 / Atlético Ottawa 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Forge wins 5, draws 4, Atlético Ottawa wins 6

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 4 2 41:12 29 49
W W W W W
2
Forge Home
21 14 3 4 33:15 18 45
W D L W W
3 22 10 4 8 34:37 -3 34
L D W L W
4 22 9 3 10 30:28 2 30
L W L L L
5 22 6 5 11 31:37 -6 23
W L L W L
6 20 5 8 7 29:42 -13 23
W D D L D
7 21 6 4 11 29:38 -9 22
L L W D L
8 21 1 7 13 25:43 -18 10
L D D W L