MALTA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: M. De Gabriele
Floriana
Match Timeline
Marsaxlokk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
36'
R. Linden
Marsaxlokk
🟨
40'
L. Aguirre
Marsaxlokk
🔄
54'
D. Vella ↔ J. Grech
Floriana
🔄
55'
R. Areias ↔ M. Jah
Floriana
56'
F. Varela
Floriana
🟨
59'
I. Mendonca
Floriana
🟨
62'
J. Minala
Marsaxlokk
🟨
66'
C. M'Mombwa
Floriana
🔄
67'
U. Arias ↔ R. Mihana
Marsaxlokk
🔄
77'
P. Mbong ↔ K. Dervisagic
Floriana
🟨
82'
E. Pepe
Marsaxlokk
🔄
90+9'
C. Zammit Lonardelli ↔ K. Mabea
Floriana
🔄
90+8'
E. Pepe ↔ I. Christie-Davies
Marsaxlokk
🔄
90+8'
D. Simkus ↔ E. Attard
Marsaxlokk
🔄
90+8'
R. Linden ↔ J. Kirby
Marsaxlokk
90'
K. Dervisagic
Floriana

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Floriana Win 50.1%
Draw 10.5%
Marsaxlokk Win 39.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Floriana1.4
Marsaxlokk1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Floriana Floriana
WWDLW
59 GF / 35 GA
Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk
WLDWL
44 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
20
BTTS Yes
20
18
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Floriana Floriana 37 matches
Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk 33 matches
Floriana Statistic Marsaxlokk
23 Wins 17
9 Draws 8
5 Losses 8
59 Goals For 44
35 Goals Against 37
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
20 BTTS Yes 20
27 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Floriana hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-1, so Marsaxlokk now have a 2-goal deficit to overturn. Floriana come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Marsaxlokk. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Marsaxlokk having the stronger overall control.

Floriana Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Floriana arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 37 points after 16 matches. With 11 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 28:12, they bring very strong form with results showing strong momentum into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Grech (11 goals), M. Jah (8 goals), F. Varela (7 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Marsaxlokk Analysis

Marsaxlokk come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 31 points from 16 matches. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 22:20, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Dodo (12 goals), A. Majok (6 goals), J. Minala (5 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Floriana won 11 times, Marsaxlokk won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:12 from Floriana's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Floriana 4-3-3 / Marsaxlokk 4-4-2
H2H summary: Floriana wins 11, draws 3, Marsaxlokk wins 1

Lineups

Floriana
Formation
Marsaxlokk
G. Cioletti
G. Cioletti
M. Beerman
M. Beerman
F. Varela
F. Varela
D. Vella
D. Vella
A. Kurtalic
A. Kurtalic
O. Spiteri
O. Spiteri
C. Zammit Lonardelli
C. Zammit Lonardelli
C. M'Mombwa
C. M'Mombwa
I. Mendonca
I. Mendonca
P. Mbong
P. Mbong
R. Areias
R. Areias
C. Mafoumbi
C. Mafoumbi
Weder
Weder
E. Pepe
E. Pepe
N. Muscat
N. Muscat
R. Linden
R. Linden
J. C. Corbalan
J. C. Corbalan
U. Arias
U. Arias
Dodo
Dodo
J. Minala
J. Minala
L. Aguirre
L. Aguirre
D. Simkus
D. Simkus
Floriana 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
23
G. Cioletti
3
M. Beerman
10
F. Varela
⚽ 56'
12
D. Vella
↓ 54'
14
A. Kurtalic
17
O. Spiteri
21
C. Zammit Lonardelli
↓ 90+9'
24
C. M'Mombwa
🟨 66'
34
I. Mendonca
🟨 59'
88
P. Mbong
↓ 77'
94
R. Areias
↓ 55'
Substitutes
1
P. Picon
4
Antonio Lara
5
G. Rodgers
7
M. Veselji
8
J. Grech
↑ 54'
9
K. Dervisagic
⚽ 90' ↑ 77'
11
Z. Scerri
15
K. Mabea
↑ 90+9'
19
M. Jah
↑ 55'
20
E. Piscopo
27
Z. Vella Newell
Marsaxlokk 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
22
C. Mafoumbi
3
Weder
5
E. Pepe
↓ 90+8' 🟨 82'
6
N. Muscat
9
R. Linden
⚽ 36' ↓ 90+8'
11
J. C. Corbalan
16
U. Arias
↓ 67'
17
Dodo
25
J. Minala
🟨 62'
27
L. Aguirre
🟨 40'
33
D. Simkus
↓ 90+8'
Substitutes
1
M. Calleja Cremona
12
D. Vella
7
I. Christie-Davies
↑ 90+8'
8
J. Ghio
14
E. Attard
↑ 90+8'
19
J. Kirby
↑ 90+8'
20
G. Karamitsios
21
J. Vella
23
T. Caruana
26
M. Maniscalco
28
R. Mihana
↑ 67'
Last matches: Floriana
21.07.26
UEF
Floriana
Drita
1
1
D
14.07.26
UEF
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
1
5
L
07.07.26
UEF
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
0
0
D
30.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Gzira United
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Hamrun Spartans
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Naxxar Lions
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Floriana
Birkirkara
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Floriana
Sliema Wanderers
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Floriana
Hamrun Spartans
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Hibernians
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Tarxien Rainbows
2
0
W
08.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Gzira United
2
1
W
04.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Zabbar St. Patrick
3
0
W
25.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Mosta
2
1
W
17.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Naxxar Lions
3
1
W
Last matches: Marsaxlokk
16.07.26
UEF
Marsaxlokk
Pyunik Yerevan
0
1
L
09.07.26
UEF
Marsaxlokk
Pyunik Yerevan
0
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Naxxar Lions
3
2
W
26.04.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Valletta FC
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Gzira United
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
3
2
W
14.03.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Valletta FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Naxxar Lions
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Mosta
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
0
2
L
18.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hibernians
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
03.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Sliema Wanderers
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
1
0
W
25.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Tarxien Rainbows
2
1
W
18.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Gzira United
0
3
L
11.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
2
1
W
H2H: Floriana vs Marsaxlokk
16.05.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
15.04.26
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
3
W
18.02.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
0
0
D
03.01.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
0
W
23.11.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
20.09.25
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
2
W
12.04.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
09.02.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
21.10.24
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
1
D
20.04.24
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
0
L
30.03.24
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
0
2
W
17.12.23
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
3
2
W
12.08.23
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
0
3
W
14.04.23
H2H
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
5
W
03.12.22
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
1
D
Last matches: Floriana
21.07.26
UEF
Floriana
Drita
1
1
D
07.07.26
UEF
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Hamrun Spartans
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
2
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Hibernians
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pre
Floriana
Tarxien Rainbows
2
0
W
25.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Mosta
2
1
W
17.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Naxxar Lions
3
1
W
10.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Floriana
Hamrun Spartans
0
2
L
20.12.25
Pre
Floriana
Sliema Wanderers
2
1
W
13.12.25
Pre
Floriana
Birkirkara
2
0
W
23.11.25
Pre
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Floriana
Sliema Wanderers
2
2
D
29.10.25
Pre
Floriana
Hamrun Spartans
1
3
L
25.10.25
Pre
Floriana
Birkirkara
2
0
W
24.09.25
Pre
Floriana
Zabbar St. Patrick
3
1
W
16.09.25
Pre
Floriana
Valletta FC
0
2
L
12.09.25
Pre
Floriana
Gzira United
1
1
D
H2H at home: Floriana
16.05.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
18.02.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
0
0
D
03.01.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
0
W
23.11.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
12.04.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
09.02.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
W
17.12.23
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
3
2
W
03.12.22
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
1
D
Last matches: Marsaxlokk
16.07.26
UEF
Marsaxlokk
Pyunik Yerevan
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Mosta
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
0
2
L
18.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
0
0
D
07.02.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Zabbar St. Patrick
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
1
0
W
18.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Gzira United
0
3
L
06.01.26
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Sliema Wanderers
0
0
D
20.12.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Valletta FC
0
1
L
14.12.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hamrun Spartans
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Floriana
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Hibernians
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Sliema Wanderers
1
1
D
02.10.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Tarxien Rainbows
2
0
W
12.09.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Valletta FC
1
3
L
24.08.25
Pre
Marsaxlokk
Naxxar Lions
1
0
W
H2H away: Marsaxlokk
16.05.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
L
18.02.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
0
0
D
03.01.26
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
0
L
23.11.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
L
12.04.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
L
09.02.25
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
2
1
L
17.12.23
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
3
2
L
03.12.22
H2H
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League , Opening Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 17:11 6 23
W W W L W
2 11 6 4 1 15:6 9 22
W L L W W
3 11 6 4 1 16:8 8 22
L L W L L
4 11 5 4 2 16:14 2 19
L D D W D
5 11 5 3 3 14:11 3 18
L W W W W
6 11 4 4 3 12:8 4 16
D D D L W
7 11 4 3 4 20:18 2 15
L W D L D
8 11 3 4 4 14:18 -4 13
L D L W L
9 11 3 2 6 13:19 -6 11
W D L D W
10 11 2 4 5 11:14 -3 10
W L W D D
11 11 1 2 8 10:18 -8 5
L L D L D
12 11 1 2 8 8:21 -13 5
L W W D D
Championship round
Relegation Round