BRAZIL SERIE C
26.09.2026 20:00

Floresta vs Santa Cruz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.3%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Floresta Win 42.5%
Draw 12.7%
Santa Cruz Win 44.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Floresta0.91
Santa Cruz1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Floresta Floresta
WWDLW
23 GF / 22 GA
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WLDWL
23 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
12
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Floresta Floresta 22 matches
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 23 matches
Floresta Statistic Santa Cruz
9 Wins 11
6 Draws 5
7 Losses 7
23 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 16
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
12 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santa Cruz. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Floresta come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Santa Cruz having the stronger overall control.

Floresta Analysis

Floresta approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 30 points after 19 outings. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 22:20, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Santa Cruz Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Santa Cruz have collected 29 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation