ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
A. Le Coq Arena
Referee: K. Kulljastinen
Flora Tallinn
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
D. Kuraksin · Assist: T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
39'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
41'
M. Miller
Paide
🟨
55'
M. Kolobov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
55'
K. Piht ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
59'
D. Luts ↔ Daniel Cabral
Paide
🔄
59'
A. Badamosi ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
61'
D. Kuraksin ↔ R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
🟨
80'
R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
80'
H. Anier
Paide
🔄
81'
S. Alamaa ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🔄
81'
R. Valdmets ↔ A. Kaares
Flora Tallinn
🔄
84'
M. P. Sohna ↔ S. Luts
Paide
🔄
84'
E. Tur ↔ R. Nigula
Paide
🟨
90+4'
S. Tovstik
Flora Tallinn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.7%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flora Tallinn Win 52.7%
Draw 11%
Paide Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flora Tallinn1.7
Paide1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WWDLW
43 GF / 23 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
39 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.95
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
7
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 22 matches
Paide Paide 24 matches
Flora Tallinn Statistic Paide
14 Wins 11
1 Draws 6
7 Losses 7
43 Goals For 39
23 Goals Against 32
1.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
7 BTTS Yes 17
17 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 11
10 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flora Tallinn come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paide.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Flora Tallinn approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 27 points after 14 outings. With 9 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:15, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by R. Sappinen (9 goals), S. Zenjov (5 goals), S. Alamaa (4 goals), with creative support from S. Alamaa (6 assists), R. Sappinen (4 assists), S. Zenjov (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 21 points from 14 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 22:19, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Daniel Cabral (5 goals), M. P. Sohna (4 goals), H. Anier (3 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), Victor Hugo (2 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flora Tallinn won 5 times, Paide won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from Flora Tallinn's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Flora Tallinn 4-3-3 / Paide -
H2H summary: Flora Tallinn wins 5, draws 1, Paide wins 9

Lineups

Flora Tallinn
Formation
Paide
E. Grunvald
E. Grunvald
S. Alamaa
S. Alamaa
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
O. Pihela
O. Pihela
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
R. Valdmets
R. Valdmets
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
T. Varjund
🎯
T. Varjund
R. Sappinen
R. Sappinen
D. Kuraksin
D. Kuraksin
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
E. Tur
E. Tur
N. Baranov
N. Baranov
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
M. Miller
M. Miller
K. Piht
K. Piht
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
D. Luts
D. Luts
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
33
E. Grunvald
29
S. Alamaa
↓ 81'
23
M. Kolobov
🟨 55'
24
O. Pihela
3
A. Kollo
26
S. Tovstik
🟨 90+4'
18
R. Valdmets
↓ 81'
32
V. Kreida
14
T. Varjund
🎯 5'
11
R. Sappinen
7
D. Kuraksin
⚽ 5' ↓ 61'
Substitutes
99
K. Kivila
5
A. Vaher
6
R. Veering
8
T. Teevali
9
R. Alliku
↑ 61' 🟨 80'
17
T. Usta
↑ 81'
20
S. Zenjov
21
A. Kaares
↑ 81'
51
R. Sammul
67
I. Antonov
89
M. Kalimullin
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
7
E. Tur
↓ 84'
27
N. Baranov
3
Victor Hugo
2
M. Lilander
28
O. Hoim
11
M. P. Sohna
↓ 84'
10
M. Miller
🟨 41'
20
K. Piht
↓ 55'
30
A. Badamosi
⚽ 39' ↓ 59'
77
D. Luts
↓ 59'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
6
Daniel Cabral
↑ 59'
8
H. Ojamaa
↑ 55'
9
H. Anier
⚽ 80' ↑ 59'
14
M. Jobarteh
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
19
S. Luts
↑ 84'
24
R. Nigula
↑ 84'
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
W
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
Last matches: Paide
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
H2H: Flora Tallinn vs Paide
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
23.05.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
5
W
26.04.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
20.02.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
26.10.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
21.06.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
W
22.02.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
L
20.10.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
W
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
L
16.03.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
BFC Daugavpils
4
0
W
17.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
1
2
L
H2H at home: Flora Tallinn
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
W
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
L
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
W
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
L
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
L
Last matches: Paide
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
L
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
W
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
L
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
W
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 18 12 0 6 38:19 19 36
W W L W L
3 19 10 4 5 33:16 17 34
W D D L D
4
Paide Away
19 9 5 5 30:23 7 32
W D W W D
5 19 8 2 9 27:35 -8 26
W L W L D
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 19 7 1 11 37:45 -8 22
W L W L W
8 19 7 1 11 25:32 -7 22
W L L L L
9 19 5 2 12 19:33 -14 17
L L L D W
10 19 3 1 15 12:46 -34 10
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga