ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
A. Le Coq Arena
Referee: J. Frischer
Flora Tallinn
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
11'
K. Kivila
Flora Tallinn
🔄
14'
R. Valdmets ↔ E. Grunvald
Flora Tallinn
🟨
17'
S. Alamaa
Flora Tallinn
20'
O. Pihela
Nõmme United
🔄
30'
N. Vassiljev ↔ T. Vendelin
Nõmme United
45+4'
Y. Morishige · Assist: Z. Beglarishvili
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
M. Kalimullin ↔ R. Sappinen
Flora Tallinn
🔄
46'
T. Teevali ↔ T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🔄
46'
E. Ounapuu ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
A. Vaher ↔ M. Kolobov
Flora Tallinn
58'
T. Varjund · Assist: D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
73'
R. Alliku ↔ S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
B. Chisala ↔ I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🔄
79'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
🟨
90+3'
I. Krasnov
Nõmme United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flora Tallinn Win 54.1%
Draw 4.2%
Nõmme United Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flora Tallinn2.16
Nõmme United1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WWDLW
53 GF / 31 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
57 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
1.96
Average Goals Scored
2.19
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
2.46
11
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
25
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 27 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 26 matches
Flora Tallinn Statistic Nõmme United
16 Wins 11
2 Draws 2
9 Losses 13
53 Goals For 57
31 Goals Against 64
1.96 Avg Goals Scored 2.19
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 2.46
11 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 26
20 Over 2.5 25
11 Over 3.5 18
11 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Nõmme United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nõmme United. Flora Tallinn arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 36 points compared to Nõmme United in 7 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 36 points from 18 games, Flora Tallinn bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 12 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 38:19, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Nõmme United Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Nõmme United have collected 22 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 1 draws, and 11 losses, while the 37:45 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Flora Tallinn won 6 times, Nõmme United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:4 from Flora Tallinn's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Flora Tallinn 4-3-3 / Nõmme United -
H2H summary: Flora Tallinn wins 6, draws 1, Nõmme United wins 1
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
W
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
Last matches: Nõmme United
11.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
2
W
03.07.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
3
L
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
H2H: Flora Tallinn vs Nõmme United
17.07.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
29.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
W
10.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
1
W
07.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
W
18.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
0
W
29.06.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
2
0
W
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
BFC Daugavpils
4
0
W
17.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
1
2
L
H2H at home: Flora Tallinn
17.07.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
10.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
1
W
07.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
18.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
0
W
01.03.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
2
0
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
24.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
4
3
W
18.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
4
2
W
H2H away: Nõmme United
17.07.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
W
10.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
1
L
07.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
L
18.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
0
L
01.03.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
2
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4 20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga