LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Daugavas stadions
Referee: J. Keziks
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
B. Samoilovs
Tukums
🟨
16'
M. Stals
Tukums
19'
Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
🔄
32'
D. Patijcuks ↔ I. Patrikejevs
FK Liepaja
37'
K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🟨
45+3'
Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
58'
D. Gueye · Assist: A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
🟨
60'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
🔄
63'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ R. Kirss
Tukums
🔄
63'
R. Reingolcs ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
63'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ J. Toba
Tukums
🔄
63'
H. Joksts ↔ M. Susts
Tukums
🔄
66'
A. Haidara ↔ C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
🔄
66'
Fellipe Vieira ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🟨
75'
A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🟨
83'
K. Dislers
Tukums
🔄
83'
B. Samoilovs ↔ D. Putrans
Tukums
🔄
84'
I. Mushindi ↔ V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🔄
84'
A. Silva ↔ K. Iljins
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 62.2%
Draw 5.4%
Tukums Win 32.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.64
Tukums1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
35 GF / 38 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
34 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
16
BTTS Yes
17
14
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 23 matches
Tukums Tukums 18 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Tukums
9 Wins 2
5 Draws 9
9 Losses 7
35 Goals For 34
38 Goals Against 33
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
16 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Tukums's more proactive style and FK Liepaja's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FK Liepaja have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tukums. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja sit 5 with 18 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 17:22 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Gueye (3 goals), Fellipe Vieira (3 goals), K. Leidsman (3 goals), with creative support from Fellipe Vieira (1 assists), A. Korobenko (1 assists), C. Amatkarijo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Tukums have collected 13 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 28:24 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Oloko (14 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), R. Deruzinskis (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 7 times, Tukums won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-4-2 / Tukums 5-3-2
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 7, draws 4, Tukums wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2 27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L