LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Daugavas stadions
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
Fellipe Vieira · Assist: E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
28'
A. Haidara · Assist: C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
🟨
33'
T. Mickevics
Ogre United
45+1'
Fellipe Vieira · Assist: V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
F. Machado ↔ A. Marchuk
Ogre United
🔄
46'
T. Mickevics ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
🔄
46'
M. Lormanis ↔ E. Evelons
Ogre United
🔄
46'
Fellipe Vieira ↔ K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
🔄
62'
M. Kalnins ↔ M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
63'
E. Rodolphe ↔ A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
🔄
63'
C. Amatkarijo ↔ D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
63'
E. Oloko · Assist: A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
🔄
70'
K. Gulbis ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
🟨
72'
M. Pacepko
Ogre United
🔄
75'
A. Haidara ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🔄
83'
K. Iljins ↔ V. Isajevs
FK Liepaja
🟨
90+1'
M. Martins
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.5%
Odds 1.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.5%
1.35
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.45
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.91
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 84.5%
Draw 4.5%
Ogre United Win 11%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.82
Ogre United1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
40 GF / 46 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
20 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.41
17
BTTS Yes
14
17
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 28 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 22 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Ogre United
11 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
12 Losses 16
40 Goals For 20
46 Goals Against 53
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.41
17 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 19
17 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 1
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ogre United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. FK Liepaja arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 25 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ogre United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

FK Liepaja Analysis

Placed 4 with 25 points from 19 outings, FK Liepaja continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, while the 23:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Gueye (5 goals), K. Leidsman (5 goals), Fellipe Vieira (4 goals), with creative support from Fellipe Vieira (2 assists), A. Korobenko (2 assists), K. Leidsman (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United sit 10 with 7 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 16:48, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through K. Cudars (5 goals), E. Evelons (2 goals), K. Johnson (2 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (2 assists), K. Cudars (1 assists), M. Ivulans (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 2 times, Ogre United won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:1 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 2, draws 0, Ogre United wins 0
Last matches: FK Liepaja
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
12.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
1
0
W
13.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
07.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
1
W
Last matches: Ogre United
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
H2H: FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
12.05.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
20.03.26
H2H
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
2
L
13.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
07.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
2
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
13.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Orebro SK
0
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Alcoyano
0
1
L
07.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kryvbas KR
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
TransINVEST Vilnius
5
2
W
28.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Kalju Nomme
3
5
L
19.01.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
Paide
3
1
W
H2H at home: FK Liepaja
12.05.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
Last matches: Ogre United
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H away: Ogre United
12.05.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.73
Draw 4.83
Home 1.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.71
Draw 2.82
Home 1.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 1.45
Over 2.75 1.55
Over 3.0 1.71
Over 3.25 1.94
Over 3.5 2.15
Over 3.75 2.46
Over 4.0 3.03
Under 2.5 2.61
Under 2.75 2.35
Under 3.0 2.11
Under 3.25 1.85
Under 3.5 1.68
Under 3.75 1.51
Under 4.0 1.35
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 4.50
Home 1.38
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.62
Home 1.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 3.10
Home 1.57
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.00
Over 6.5 9.00
Over 7.5 13.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 21.00
Under 1.5 5.50
Under 2.5 2.62
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.95
Draw 5.15
Home 1.31
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.38
Draw 2.62
Home 1.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.30
Draw 3.22
Home 1.56
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.10
Over 1.75 1.12
Over 2.0 1.15
Over 2.25 1.28
Over 2.5 1.42
Over 2.75 1.52
Over 3.0 1.66
Over 3.25 1.91
Over 3.5 2.12
Over 3.75 2.38
Over 4.0 2.88
Over 4.25 3.14
Over 4.5 3.42
Over 4.75 4.24
Over 5.0 5.65
Over 5.25 5.95
Over 5.5 6.25
Over 6.5 10.00
Over 7.5 15.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 13.80
Under 1.0 10.50
Under 1.5 5.15
Under 1.75 4.74
Under 2.0 4.30
Under 2.25 3.05
Under 2.5 2.49
Under 2.75 2.24
Under 3.0 1.99
Under 3.25 1.78
Under 3.5 1.63
Under 3.75 1.46
Under 4.0 1.32
Under 4.25 1.27
Under 4.5 1.23
Under 4.75 1.15
Under 5.0 1.08
Under 5.25 1.07
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.00
Draw 4.90
Home 1.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.41
Over 3.5 2.06
Over 4.5 3.35
Over 5.5 5.60
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.55
Under 3.5 1.63
Under 4.5 1.25
Under 5.5 1.09

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 4 1 62:19 43 52
W D W W W
2 20 17 1 2 50:14 36 52
W W L W W
3 21 12 3 6 36:25 11 39
L D W L D
4 20 7 4 9 23:31 -8 25
L L L W W
5 21 6 7 8 24:35 -11 25
W W W L D
6 20 6 6 8 21:25 -4 24
D W D D D
7 20 6 3 11 20:32 -12 21
L L D L L
8 20 3 8 9 35:39 -4 17
L L W D L
9 21 3 8 10 12:32 -20 17
L D L W L
10 20 2 4 14 19:50 -31 10
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga