LATVIA VIRSLIGA
19.09.2026 11:00
Daugavas stadions

FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.8%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 65.8%
Draw 4.7%
BFC Daugavpils Win 29.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.41
BFC Daugavpils1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
62 GF / 64 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
41 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
25
BTTS Yes
18
26
Over 2.5
15
0.6
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 42 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 37 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic BFC Daugavpils
18 Wins 12
7 Draws 8
17 Losses 17
62 Goals For 41
64 Goals Against 48
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
25 BTTS Yes 18
34 Over 1.5 22
26 Over 2.5 15
15 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 13
0.6 Shots On Goal 0
2.4 Total Shots 0
0.9 Corners 0
8.2% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and BFC Daugavpils's more proactive style and FK Liepaja's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FK Liepaja expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and BFC Daugavpils in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors BFC Daugavpils.

FK Liepaja Analysis

Placed 4 with 42 points from 30 outings, FK Liepaja continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 41:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 38 points from 29 matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 34:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 7 times, BFC Daugavpils won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:22 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 7, draws 4, BFC Daugavpils wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 22 4 2 68:20 48 70
D W D W W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 29 10 8 11 34:33 1 38
D L D W W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L