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SERBIA › SUPER LIGA
17.10.2026 16:00
Stadion Rajko Mit

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Lucani Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.09
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.36
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.6%
1.09 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.36 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.6%
1.12 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
FK Crvena Zvezda Win 69.6%
Draw 4.2%
Mladost Lucani Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Crvena Zvezda1.68
Mladost Lucani1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda
WWDLW
55 GF / 22 GA
Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani
WLDWL
23 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
2.2
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
10
BTTS Yes
10
16
Over 2.5
7
7.53
Shots on Goal
2.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda 25 matches
Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 20 matches
FK Crvena Zvezda Statistic Mladost Lucani
17 Wins 9
3 Draws 9
5 Losses 2
55 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 18
2.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
10 BTTS Yes 10
22 Over 1.5 12
16 Over 2.5 7
10 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 6
7.53 Shots On Goal 2.91
15.82 Total Shots 9.09
4.65 Corners 3.09
53.9% Ball Possession 40.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by FK Crvena Zvezda's more proactive style and Mladost Lucani's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mladost Lucani. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FK Crvena Zvezda expected to line up in 3-2-4-1 and Mladost Lucani in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mladost Lucani having the stronger overall control. FK Crvena Zvezda come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. FK Crvena Zvezda arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 28 points compared to Mladost Lucani in 4 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

FK Crvena Zvezda Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 28 points from 10 games, FK Crvena Zvezda bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 24:3, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Abu Fani (2 goals), M. Ivanić (2 goals), L. Loizou (2 goals), with creative support from A. Katai (4 assists), M. Abu Fani (2 assists), M. Ivanić (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Mladost Lucani Analysis

Mladost Lucani come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 16 points after 10 matches. With 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Vasil Tasovski (2 goals), J. Ćirić (1 goals), N. Ćirković (1 goals), with creative support from A. Varjačić (2 assists), J. Ćirić (1 assists), V. Kijevčanin (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Crvena Zvezda won 14 times, Mladost Lucani won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 40:9 from FK Crvena Zvezda's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2-4-1 / Mladost Lucani 5-4-1
H2H summary: FK Crvena Zvezda wins 14, draws 1, Mladost Lucani wins 0

Standings

Super Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 10 1 0 27:3 24 31
W W W W D
2 11 8 1 2 25:11 14 25
W D W W W
3 11 5 3 3 13:7 6 18
W D L D W
4 10 5 2 3 17:10 7 17
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 17:12 5 17
L W W D D
6 11 4 5 2 10:12 -2 17
D W L W L
7 11 3 5 3 14:16 -2 14
L D D D W
8 11 3 4 4 10:12 -2 13
L D D W D
9 11 3 3 5 14:20 -6 12
D L D L L
10 10 3 2 5 18:19 -1 11
W D L L W
11 11 2 4 5 13:21 -8 10
D L L D L
12 11 2 3 6 8:19 -11 9
D L L D D
13 10 2 2 6 7:15 -8 8
L L W L D
14 11 0 3 8 6:22 -16 3
L D D L L
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