BRAZIL SERIE C
16.05.2026 22:30
Referee: J. Nascimento
Figueirense
Match Timeline
AO Itabaiana
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
Everton Kanela
AO Itabaiana
🟨
44'
Lucas Bessa
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Jean Mangabeira ↔ Joao Choco
Figueirense
🔄
57'
Leo Maia ↔ Vitor Ricardo
Figueirense
🔄
57'
Hyuri ↔ Lucas Alves
Figueirense
🔄
68'
Renan Areias ↔ Flavio
Figueirense
🔄
68'
Guilherme Vieira ↔ Arthur Martins
Figueirense
🔄
78'
Karl ↔ Fabricio Moura
AO Itabaiana
🔄
78'
Everton Kanela ↔ Luan Silva
AO Itabaiana
🔄
85'
Rodrigo Alves ↔ Renatinho
AO Itabaiana
🔄
85'
Leilson ↔ Isaque
AO Itabaiana
🔄
85'
Lucas Bessa ↔ Caio Felipe
AO Itabaiana

Figueirense vs AO Itabaiana Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Figueirense Win 53.4%
Draw 37.3%
AO Itabaiana Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Figueirense1.4
AO Itabaiana1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Figueirense Figueirense
WWDLW
6 GF / 11 GA
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WLDWL
5 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
2
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Figueirense Figueirense 6 matches
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 6 matches
Figueirense Statistic AO Itabaiana
2 Wins 0
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
6 Goals For 5
11 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 2
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 4
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AO Itabaiana. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward AO Itabaiana having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Figueirense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 13 with 7 points compared to AO Itabaiana in 20 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Figueirense Analysis

Figueirense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 7 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:11 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Bolt (2 goals), Arthur Martins (1 goals), Breno (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 2 points from 6 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 5:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Everton Kanela (2 goals), Isaque (1 goals), Karl (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Figueirense won 0 times, AO Itabaiana won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Figueirense's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.7%)
H2H summary: Figueirense wins 0, draws 1, AO Itabaiana wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L W W D
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
L W W W D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation