BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ferroviario
Match Timeline
Fluminense PI
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
46'
Thomas Luciano
Ferroviario
🟥
73'
Ferroviario
Ferroviario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.4%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviario Win 57.4%
Draw 4.1%
Fluminense PI Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviario1.29
Fluminense PI1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WWDLW
14 GF / 7 GA
Fluminense PI Fluminense PI
WLDWL
12 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
5
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviario Ferroviario 9 matches
Fluminense PI Fluminense PI 9 matches
Ferroviario Statistic Fluminense PI
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 5
1 Losses 1
14 Goals For 12
7 Goals Against 8
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
5 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fluminense PI having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fluminense PI. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ferroviario Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 18 points from 9 games, Ferroviario bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, with a 14:7 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Ciel (5 goals), Luisinho (3 goals), Lucas Black (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Fluminense PI Analysis

Fluminense PI arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 14 points after 9 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 12:8 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Joao Vitor (6 goals), Junior Timbo (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviario won 3 times, Fluminense PI won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:1 from Ferroviario's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
H2H summary: Ferroviario wins 3, draws 1, Fluminense PI wins 0
Last matches: Ferroviario
01.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
2
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
0
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
1
1
D
16.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
2
3
L
08.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
3
1
W
01.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
1
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
1
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense PI
20.06.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
America-RN
0
3
L
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Altos
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Piauí
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Tirol/CEFAT
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Tirol/CEFAT
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Piauí
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Altos
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Ferroviario
1
1
D
H2H: Ferroviario vs Fluminense PI
13.06.26
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
W
04.04.26
H2H
Fluminense PI
Ferroviario
1
1
D
22.07.23
H2H
Fluminense PI
Ferroviario
0
2
W
07.05.23
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
2
0
W
Last matches: Ferroviario
23.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
3
2
W
02.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
1
1
D
08.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
3
1
W
25.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
1
0
W
04.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
3
1
W
H2H at home: Ferroviario
13.06.26
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
W
07.05.23
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
2
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense PI
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Piauí
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Tirol/CEFAT
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense PI
Altos
3
0
W
H2H away: Fluminense PI
13.06.26
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
L
07.05.23
H2H
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
2
0
L

Standings

Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)