BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ferroviario
Match Timeline
Central SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
69'
Hitalo
Ferroviario
84'
Kiuan
Ferroviario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviario Win 69.9%
Draw 4%
Central SC Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviario1.16
Central SC0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WWDLW
16 GF / 8 GA
Central SC Central SC
WLDWL
9 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
6
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviario Ferroviario 11 matches
Central SC Central SC 11 matches
Ferroviario Statistic Central SC
6 Wins 3
4 Draws 5
1 Losses 3
16 Goals For 9
8 Goals Against 8
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Central SC. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Central SC having the stronger overall control. Ferroviario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Central SC in 4 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Ferroviario Analysis

Ferroviario come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 21 points from 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 15:7 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Ciel (5 goals), Luisinho (3 goals), Lucas Black (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Central SC Analysis

Central SC enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 8:7 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Caio Vinicius (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviario won 1 times, Central SC won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Ferroviario's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
H2H summary: Ferroviario wins 1, draws 2, Central SC wins 1

Standings

Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)