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24.10.2026 20:00
Arena Fonte Luminosa
Referee: F. Mendes
Ferroviária
Match Timeline
Maringá
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
Lucas Bonifacio
Maringá
⚽
12'
Ronald Camarao
Maringá
🔄
29'
Carlao ↔ Guilherme Ferreira
Ferroviária
🔄
29'
Ricardinho ↔ Schilling Arthur
Ferroviária
🟨
45+6'
Wendel Lomar
Maringá
🔄
55'
Jhow Alecxander ↔ Gabriel Souza
Maringá
🟨
59'
Ronald Carvalho
Maringá
🔄
60'
Eduardo Oliveira ↔ Fau
Ferroviária
🔄
60'
Vitor Barreto ↔ Alan Stence
Ferroviária
🟨
61'
Gabriel Souza
Maringá
🔄
64'
Juninho ↔ Maranhao
Ferroviária
🔄
66'
Caique Calito ↔ Rai Natalino
Maringá
🟨
72'
Ronald Camarao
Maringá
🔄
73'
Thiago Rosa ↔ Gabriel Santos
Maringá
🔄
73'
Ronald Camarao ↔ Guilherme Pira
Maringá
🔄
73'
Paulinho ↔ Iago Santana
Maringá
🟨
79'
Lucas Bonifacio
Maringá
⚽
82'
Alencar
Ferroviária
🔄
85'
Alencar ↔ M. Thiago
Ferroviária
🟨
90+2'
Maringá
Maringá

Ferroviária vs Maringá Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.5%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 59.5%
Draw 7.9%
Maringá Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária1.27
Maringá1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
D W L D W
7 GF / 5 GA
Maringá Maringá
D W D D W
6 GF / 2 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
10
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 26 matches
Maringá Maringá 26 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Maringá
11 Wins 11
9 Draws 9
6 Losses 6
33 Goals For 39
23 Goals Against 33
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
10 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 20
8 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Maringá have the edge after taking the first leg 3-2, leaving Ferroviária needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Maringá. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maringá having the stronger overall control.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária enter this tie with a season profile built on 30 points from 19 matches, placing them 3 in their league. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 22:15 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Maringá Analysis

Maringá come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 30 points from 19 matches. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses plus a goal ratio of 32:30, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 0 times, Maringá won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Ferroviária's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 0, draws 2, Maringá wins 3

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W D D L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D D L D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
L D W L D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W D W D D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D D L W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D W D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D W L D L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
L D D W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation