BRAZIL SERIE C
04.07.2026 23:30
Arena Fonte Luminosa
Referee: H. Cardoso
Ferroviária
Match Timeline
Caxias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Matheus Nunes
Caxias
🟨
31'
Guilherme Ferreira
Ferroviária
🟨
34'
Felipe Rodrigues
Ferroviária
🔄
55'
Ze Vitor ↔ Fernandinho
Ferroviária
🔄
55'
Allison ↔ M. Thiago
Ferroviária
🔄
68'
Ricardinho ↔ Rafael Carillho
Ferroviária
🔄
68'
Denilson Silva ↔ Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária
🔄
72'
Calyson ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
72'
Gaspar ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias
74'
Fernandinho
Caxias
🔄
78'
Fau ↔ Vinni Faria
Ferroviária
🔄
82'
Matheus Nunes ↔ Windson
Caxias
🔄
82'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
89'
Jhonatan Ribeiro ↔ Vitor Feijao
Caxias

Ferroviária vs Caxias Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 77%
Draw 5.2%
Caxias Win 17.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária0.93
Caxias0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WWDLW
12 GF / 10 GA
Caxias Caxias
WLDWL
12 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
4
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 12 matches
Caxias Caxias 12 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Caxias
5 Wins 4
4 Draws 5
3 Losses 3
12 Goals For 12
10 Goals Against 10
1 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
4 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ferroviária come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caxias having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Caxias. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 19 points after 11 outings. With 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:9, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias are currently 8 in the standings with 16 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 0 times, Caxias won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Ferroviária's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 0, draws 1, Caxias wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L W W D
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
L W W W D
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation