BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Fonte Luminosa
Referee: H. Cardoso
Ferroviária
Match Timeline
Caxias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Matheus Nunes
Caxias
🟨
31'
Guilherme Ferreira
Ferroviária
🟨
34'
Felipe Rodrigues
Ferroviária
🔄
55'
Ze Vitor ↔ Fernandinho
Ferroviária
🔄
55'
Allison ↔ M. Thiago
Ferroviária
🔄
68'
Ricardinho ↔ Rafael Carillho
Ferroviária
🔄
68'
Denilson Silva ↔ Douglas Skilo
Ferroviária
🔄
72'
Calyson ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
72'
Gaspar ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias
74'
Fernandinho
Caxias
🔄
78'
Fau ↔ Vinni Faria
Ferroviária
🔄
82'
Matheus Nunes ↔ Windson
Caxias
🔄
82'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
89'
Jhonatan Ribeiro ↔ Vitor Feijao
Caxias

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviária Win 77%
Draw 5.2%
Caxias Win 17.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviária0.93
Caxias0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WWDLW
12 GF / 10 GA
Caxias Caxias
WLDWL
12 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
4
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviária Ferroviária 12 matches
Caxias Caxias 12 matches
Ferroviária Statistic Caxias
5 Wins 4
4 Draws 5
3 Losses 3
12 Goals For 12
10 Goals Against 10
1 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
4 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ferroviária come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caxias having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Caxias. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 19 points after 11 outings. With 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:9, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias are currently 8 in the standings with 16 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária won 0 times, Caxias won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from Ferroviária's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Ferroviária wins 0, draws 1, Caxias wins 1

Lineups

Ferroviária
Formation
Caxias
Denis Junior
Denis Junior
Felipe Rodrigues
Felipe Rodrigues
Guilherme Ferreira
Guilherme Ferreira
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor
Ricardinho
Ricardinho
Eduardo Oliveira
Eduardo Oliveira
Alencar
Alencar
Albano
Albano
Allison
Allison
Denilson Silva
Denilson Silva
Fau
Fau
G. Busatto
G. Busatto
Felipe Albuquerque
Felipe Albuquerque
Ianson
Ianson
Mancha
Mancha
Roberto
Roberto
Breno Santos
Breno Santos
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes
Marcelo Freitas
Marcelo Freitas
Calyson
Calyson
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Gaspar
Gaspar
Ferroviária 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
Denis Junior
22
Felipe Rodrigues
🟨 34'
4
Guilherme Ferreira
🟨 31'
40
Ze Vitor
↓ 55'
5
Ricardinho
↓ 68'
29
Eduardo Oliveira
8
Alencar
10
Albano
38
Allison
↓ 55'
9
Denilson Silva
↓ 68'
7
Fau
↓ 78'
Substitutes
34
Gustavo Jundi
14
Jhonatan Garcia
15
Fernandinho
⚽ 74' ↑ 55'
17
M. Cantarelli
18
Rafael Carillho
↑ 68'
19
M. Thiago
↑ 55'
23
Schilling Arthur
25
Vinni Faria
↑ 78'
26
Vinicius Kaue
30
Raoni
36
Douglas Skilo
↑ 68'
51
M. Vinicius
Caxias 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Busatto
2
Felipe Albuquerque
3
Ianson
4
Mancha
6
Roberto
5
Breno Santos
8
Matheus Nunes
↓ 82' 🟨 15'
10
Marcelo Freitas
↓ 82'
7
Calyson
↓ 72'
19
Jhonatan Ribeiro
↓ 89'
9
Gaspar
↓ 72'
Substitutes
12
Marcelo
13
Windson
↑ 82'
16
Victor Sa
↑ 72'
17
K. C. Portela Torres
18
Vitor Gabriel
↑ 82'
11
Vitor Feijao
↑ 89'
20
Felipe Rangel
↑ 72'
21
Matheus Anjos
22
Joao Lucas
Last matches: Ferroviária
12.07.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Ituano
3
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
AO Itabaiana
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Inter De Limeira
2
0
W
15.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Barra
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Santa Cruz
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Amazonas
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Brusque
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Volta Redonda
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Anápolis
1
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
20.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Floresta
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Maringá
2
3
L
Last matches: Caxias
11.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
H2H: Ferroviária vs Caxias
04.07.26
H2H
Ferroviária
Caxias
0
1
L
16.06.24
H2H
Caxias
Ferroviária
0
0
D
Last matches: Ferroviária
21.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Inter De Limeira
2
0
W
15.06.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Barra
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Brusque
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Anápolis
1
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Guarani Campinas
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviária
Botafogo PB
0
2
L
H2H at home: Ferroviária
04.07.26
H2H
Ferroviária
Caxias
0
1
L
Last matches: Caxias
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
H2H away: Caxias
04.07.26
H2H
Ferroviária
Caxias
0
1
W

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 7 4 3 17:14 3 25
W W D L W
2 14 7 3 4 20:15 5 24
L W L W L
3 14 7 3 4 15:10 5 24
W W W L W
4 14 7 2 5 22:19 3 23
W L L W L
5 14 6 5 3 25:14 11 23
L D D L W
6 14 7 1 6 19:15 4 22
W W W W D
7 14 6 4 4 27:24 3 22
W W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 15:12 3 22
W L L W W
9 14 5 6 3 13:10 3 21
D W D D L
10 14 5 5 4 15:14 1 20
D D W L L
11 14 5 4 5 16:16 0 19
L L D D D
12 14 5 3 6 17:19 -2 18
L W D W D
13 14 5 3 6 10:15 -5 18
D L W L W
14 14 5 2 7 13:19 -6 17
L L L D W
15 14 4 5 5 11:14 -3 17
W L D L D
16 14 4 5 5 12:18 -6 17
D L D D W
17 14 4 4 6 12:17 -5 16
W W W L D
18 14 3 6 5 17:16 1 15
L W L D L
19 14 3 2 9 8:14 -6 11
L L D W L
20 14 2 3 9 9:18 -9 9
L L D W L
Play-offs
Relegation