SWITZERLAND › SUPER LEAGUE
16.05.2026 16:00
Stadion Schützenwiese
Referee: N. Gianforte
FC Winterthur
Match Timeline
FC Luzern
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Adrian Bajrami
FC Luzern
⚽
39'
O. Kabwit · Assist: R. Dantas
FC Luzern
🟥
45+1'
Tibault Citherlet
FC Winterthur
🔄
46'
L. Maksutaj ↔ A. Hunziker
FC Winterthur
⚽
54'
P. Dorn · Assist: A. Vasovic
FC Luzern
🔄
58'
E. Essiam ↔ N. Burkart
FC Winterthur
🔄
58'
R. Buess ↔ E. Maluvunu
FC Winterthur
🔄
63'
M. Di Giusto ↔ S. Karweina
FC Luzern
🔄
63'
L. M. Silva Ferreira ↔ K. Spadanuda
FC Luzern
⚽
68'
O. Kabwit
FC Luzern
🔄
74'
L. Zuffi ↔ P. Kasami
FC Winterthur
🔄
74'
O. Kabwit ↔ J. Von Moos
FC Luzern
🔄
74'
A. Vasovic ↔ L. Villiger
FC Luzern
🔄
80'
T. Abe ↔ L. Winkler
FC Luzern
🔄
83'
F. Rohner ↔ D. Ulrich
FC Winterthur
🟨
85'
Stefan Knežević
FC Luzern
🟨
90'
Stéphane Cueni
FC Winterthur

FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Winterthur Win 27.9%
Draw 10.7%
FC Luzern Win 61.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Winterthur1.43
FC Luzern2.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Winterthur FC Winterthur
WWDLW
44 GF / 97 GA
FC Luzern FC Luzern
WLDWL
73 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.97
2.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
26
BTTS Yes
28
29
Over 2.5
30
4.19
Shots on Goal
4.49

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Winterthur FC Winterthur 37 matches
FC Luzern FC Luzern 37 matches
FC Winterthur Statistic FC Luzern
5 Wins 13
8 Draws 11
24 Losses 13
44 Goals For 73
97 Goals Against 66
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.97
2.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
26 BTTS Yes 28
36 Over 1.5 34
29 Over 2.5 30
19 Over 3.5 21
0 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 4
4.19 Shots On Goal 4.49
11.78 Total Shots 14.35
3.65 Corners 5.49
44% Ball Possession 50.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FC Luzern's more proactive style and FC Winterthur's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Winterthur have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Winterthur expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Luzern in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Luzern having the stronger overall control. FC Luzern carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 47 points while FC Winterthur sit 6 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FC Luzern.

FC Winterthur Analysis

FC Winterthur approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 23 points from 36 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 23 losses, together with goals at 42:94, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Hunziker (11 goals), N. Burkart (5 goals), T. Golliard (4 goals), with creative support from T. Golliard (6 assists), A. Hunziker (4 assists), Randy Schneider (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Luzern Analysis

FC Luzern arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 47 points after 36 matches. The record of 12 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 72:66 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Di Giusto (12 goals), O. Kabwit (8 goals), L. M. Silva Ferreira (7 goals), with creative support from M. Di Giusto (12 assists), O. Kabwit (6 assists), Tyron Owusu (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Winterthur won 3 times, FC Luzern won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:35 from FC Winterthur's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: FC Winterthur 4-2-3-1 / FC Luzern 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: FC Winterthur wins 3, draws 3, FC Luzern wins 9

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 24 2 7 75:37 38 74
D L L L L
2 33 17 9 7 64:40 24 60
D W W L W
3 33 16 9 8 50:38 12 57
W D L W W
4 33 15 8 10 51:45 6 53
L L L W L
5 33 13 13 7 51:35 16 52
D D W W W
6 33 13 9 11 65:60 5 48
D W W L L
7 33 10 10 13 64:61 3 40
W W D W W
8 33 9 13 11 57:57 0 40
W W D W W
9 33 10 9 14 47:57 -10 39
L L L L W
10 33 10 4 19 45:63 -18 34
L L W D L
11 33 6 9 18 40:65 -25 27
W D W W L
12 33 4 7 22 35:86 -51 19
L L W D L
Championship round
Relegation Round